US Dollar benefits from mild risk-off mood ahead of Nvidia earnings
- The US Dollar trades flat ahead of a quiet US economic calendar.
- Markets seem to turn risk-off ahead of Nvidia earnings, benefiting the Dollar and weighing on Chinese tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
- The US Dollar Index edges up slightly, trading just below 101.00 for a second day in a row.
The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed again on Wednesday, with markets getting a bit nervous ahead of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) earnings to be released after the US closing bell. Seeing the recent slowdown in some economic numbers and with the boom around Artificial Intelligence (AI) having eased a touch, traders wonder if Nvidia can keep up its pace of growth and its streak of beating earnings. A miss on estimates could spark some sharper risk-off moves, a scenario that would put the US Dollar back in the graces of traders with safe-haven flows unfolding.
On the US economic calendar front, nearly no data points for markets to digest on Wednesday. This adds to more tension and expectations for the Nvidia earnings. Even Federal Reserve officials aren’t expected to make an early appearance, with only Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic set to speak at 22:00 GMT.
Daily digest market movers: Another off day
- At 11:00 GMT, the Mortgage Bankers Association has released its weekly Mortgage Applications Index, this time for the week ending August 23. The week before, the index posted a steep decline of 10.1% with the most recent number coming in at 0.5%.
- The US Treasury is auctioning a 5-year note around 17:00 GMT.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A about the US economic outlook at the Stanford Club of Georgia at 22:00 GMT.
- Equities in Asia got dragged lower due to Chinese tech stocks dipping ahead of Nvidia earnings later this Wednesday. Both European and US indices are rather flat.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 63.5% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 36.5% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 42.5%, while there is a 45.4% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps + 50 bps) below the current levels and a 12.1% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps + 75 bps) basis points lower.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.82%, quite stable for the second day in a row.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Nvidia moving forex
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is seeing a very odd driver dictating direction. The assumption is very easy: should Nvidia earnings beat expectations again, a new wave of risk-on flows will likely push equities higher and the US Dollar lower. If earnings fall in line with expectations or below them, the US Dollar is expected to rally and risk-off flows would send equities south.
For a recovery, the DXY faces a long road ahead. First, 101.90 is the level to reclaim. A steep 2% uprising would be needed to get the index to 103.18 from the current 101.00. A very heavy resistance level near 104.00 not only holds a pivotal technical value, but it also bears the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the second heavyweight to cap price action.
On the downside, 100.62 (the low from December 28) tries to hold support, although it looks rather feeble. Should it break, the low from July 14, 2023, at 99.58 will be the ultimate level to look out for. Once that level gives way, early levels from 2023 are coming in near 97.73.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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