US Dollar dips on Friday after mixed economic data
- USD slid following the University of Michigan Sentiment figures and housing market data.
- Markets remain confident about a cut in September.
- Greenback might continue being sensitive on data releases.
On Friday, the US Dollar (USD), as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), experienced a decline following the release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index figures and softer-than-expected housing market data.
As per the US economic outlook, careful evaluation of the data suggests that the US economy is maintaining growth above trend. This portrays an overestimation by the market in pricing for aggressive easing as the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains data-dependant.
Daily digest market movers: Dollar down after mixed UoM data and soft housing market figures
- The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index recorded an improved figure of 67.8 for early August, rising from July's 66.4. It also outperformed the market expectation of 66.9.
- Following a decrease to 60.9 from 62.7, the Current Conditions Index illustrated a decline, while the Consumer Expectations Index registered an increase to 72.1 from 68.8.
- In contrast, Housing Starts in the US recorded a decline of 6.8% in July, down to 1.238 million units, signaling a softened housing market.
- Additionally, Building Permits decreased by 4% after a rise of 3.9% in June.
- Markets remain overconfident that the Fed will rush to cut, but it will all depend on incoming data.
DXY technical outlook: Consolidation trend continues, overall bearish bias remains
Technical analysis indicates a sideways trend in the DXY with indicators showing a deep consolidation in negative terrain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 40 with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator’s red bars stabilizing, suggesting subdued price action. Despite gains noted on Thursday, the overall technical picture remains bearish. Buyers are struggling to make a significant move with the DXY index trading in the 102.50-103.30 channel.
Support Levels: 102.40, 102.20, 102.00
Resistance Levels: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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