USD/INR weakens as likely inflows boost Indian Rupee
- Indian Rupee gains traction in Friday’s Asian session.
- Softer USD and portfolio inflows support the INR, while higher crude oil prices might cap its upside.
- Investors await the Fed’s Harker speech on Friday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its upside on the weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The INR trades near the two-month highs, bolstered by likely portfolio inflows and an appreciation in the Chinese Yuan after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began its easing cycle with an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting. Additionally, the USD sales likely from large foreign banks on behalf of custodial clients contribute to the local currency’s upside.
However, the further rise in crude oil prices might limit the upside for the INR as India is the third-largest oil consumer after the United States (US) and China. The Fed Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee trades firmer amid favorable economic factors
- According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the foreign exchange reserves have grown by USD 66 billion in 2024, reaching a total of USD 689.235 billion.
- “The rupee’s recent rally reflects favorable domestic conditions and the impact of global monetary policy shifts. As the Fed's decisions continue to sway markets, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India’s response and whether the rupee can maintain its upward trajectory. For now, 84 will serve as a strong resistance level, while 83.50 will act as robust support,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex.
- The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K for the week ending September 14, the US Department of Labor (DoL) showed Thursday. This figure was below the market consensus of 230K and lower than the previous week of 231K (revised from 230K).
- US Existing Home Sales dropped 2.5% MoM in August to 3.86 million from 3.96 million in July.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 1.7 in September, compared to a fall of 7 in the previous reading, better than the estimation of -1.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR resumes its broader bearish trend
The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The downtrend of the USD/INR pair resumes as the pair broke below the rectangle and the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 32.40, supporting the sellers for the time being.
The initial support level for the pair emerges at 83.50, the low of July 17. Sustained bearish momentum could pave the way to 83.31, the low of June 18. The next cushion level is seen at the 83.00 psychological mark.
On the bright side, the 100-day EMA at 83.64 will be the immediate resistance level for USD/INR, followed by 83.75, the lower limit of the rectangle. The key upside barrier to watch is the 83.90-84.00 zone.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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