EUR/CHF: Spread compression to weigh – ING

It looks like G10 policy rates (ex-Japan) are going lower, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.

EUR/CHF may struggle to stay above 0.95

“We are looking for at least another 125bp of ECB easing into next summer, if not 175bp. Switzerland is closer to the zero-bound constraint, however, and markets are reluctant to price the Swiss National Bank policy rate below 0.50% - just 75bp lower from current levels. Spread compression could therefore weigh on EUR/CHF into 2025.”

“We also think the SNB pays close attention to the real CHF. At the end of July, it was still some 4% off the highest levels seen in January 2024 and suggests the SNB may not emerge with strong verbal intervention until EUR/CHF is closer to the 0.91 area.”

“Geopolitics also means EUR/CHF may struggle to stay above 0.95.”