美債收益率上升是特朗普牛市面臨的最大挑戰
華爾街投資者原本希望以傳統的聖誕老人集會來結束今年，但到目前爲止卻感到失望。繼上週末標準普爾 500 指數下跌 1.1% 後，股指期貨表明股市將繼續陷入困境。
經濟學家表示，2024 年對於華爾街來說是創紀錄的一年。標準普爾 500 指數共 57 次創下歷史新高，躋身歷史記錄前五年。過去一年，納斯達克綜合指數上漲了 31% 以上，標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 25%，道瓊斯工業平均指數則上漲了14%。
然而，債券收益率上升給股市帶來了挑戰。基準 10 年期國債收益率上週收於七個月來的最高水平。自 9 月份以來，即使在美聯儲降息之後，收益率仍上漲了近一個百分點。
美國國債收益率可能給股市帶來壓力
分析師將債券收益率上升歸因於對dent總統唐納德·特朗普關稅和稅收政策的擔憂。這些政策可能會加劇通貨膨脹並擴大聯邦defi，增加債券供應並抑制價格。
Evercore ISI 策略師朱利安·伊曼紐爾 (Julian Emanuel) 警告稱，即使更廣泛的經濟狀況仍然有利，長期收益率也可能繼續對股市施加中期壓力。
伊曼紐爾在最近的一份報告中寫道： “隨着 2025 年的開始，長期債券收益率的上升對牛市構成了最大的挑戰。”他指出，美聯儲 12 月會議後股市波動加劇。
債券市場正在達到頂峯，而原油市場則已觸底，兩者很大程度上都是由通脹推動的。由於其去中心化性質和供應有限，Bitcoin將自己定位爲關鍵參與者，爲傳統資產貶值提供了替代方案。作爲…
— GG (@LuillyDRR) 2024 年 12 月 27 日
Emanuel emphasized that while bond yields may pull back slightly in the short term due to elevated Treasury short positions and easing geopolitical tensions, the medium-term outlook remains challenging. The interplay between rising bond yields and equity valuations will be crucial in determining market trends in early 2025.
The strategist also predicts that a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% is manageable for equities, but a breach of 4.75% could trigger a deeper correction. Notably, stocks have shown resilience in periods of rising yields, advancing 117% since the bond market trough in 2020.
However, during periods when yields surpassed 4.5% or 4.75%, equities posted negative returns of -2.1% and -3.7%, respectively.
Corporate earnings bolstered by economic resilience
In 2024, earnings growth extended beyond the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, with the other 493 S&P 500 companies exiting their earnings recession. According to FactSet data, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 15% year over year in 2025.
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, notes that this earnings growth will likely sustain the bull market. “The weight of evidence suggests the primary market trend remains higher, driven by earnings growth in 2025,” Lerner stated in his market outlook.
The broader U.S. economy has also demonstrated resilience. November retail sales exceeded expectations, GDP growth remains above trend at 3%, and the unemployment rate continues to hover around 4%. While still elevated, inflation has shown signs of moderation, giving investors hope for a “soft landing” where prices stabilize without significant job losses.
Market tailwinds and headwinds into 2025
Several tailwinds are supporting market optimism heading into 2025. Record corporate profits are expected for a second consecutive year, with net profit margins projected to remain nearly 12%. Sectors beyond technology, including health care, industrials, and materials, are anticipated to see profit increases in the high teens.
However, headwinds are where economists are expressing little to no optimism. Federal Reserve officials now project the federal funds rate to fall to 3.9% in 2025, an increase from their earlier September estimate of 3.4%.
While the Fed delivered a substantial 50 basis point rate cut in September, most adjustments over the past year have been in smaller 25 basis point increments. The latest projections suggest the central bank anticipates two more rate cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts previously forecast in September.
BREAKING: Fed projections imply 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, another 50 bps in 2026.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2024
If interest rates are not accordingly cut in 2025, given the Federal Reserve’s commitment to combating inflation, it may risk a policy error that could potentially harm the labor market.
Additionally, analysts reckon that the Trump administration’s policies, while business-friendly, could introduce growth challenges through higher tariffs.
Tech stocks, which have driven much of the market’s gains, face potential stagnation as investors grow wary of excessive spending on artificial intelligence without corresponding earnings growth. While a collapse in tech valuations is unlikely, a moderation in valuations could shift investor focus toward undervalued sectors like health care and materials.
From Zero to Web3 Pro: Your 90-Day Career Launch Plan
推薦文章
