Matrixport分享2025年Bitcoin牛市面臨的最大風險
貝萊德質疑比特幣供應及隨之而來的威脅
貝萊德曾對Bitcoin2100萬供應上限的保障提出質疑。作爲目前通過 ETF 涉足Bitcoin的最大資產管理公司之一，貝萊德的聲明在市場討論中頗具影響力。
谷歌宣佈推出具有 105 個量子比特的“Willow”量子芯片，讓量子計算威脅重新成爲人們關注的焦點。雖然當前的量子技術無法打破Bitcoin的加密防禦，但進步的速度引發了人們對長期安全性的質疑。報告指出，量子計算仍處於早期階段，缺乏對Bitcoin安全模型構成直接威脅所需的規模。
美聯儲最新的通脹前景又增加了一層不確定性。據 Matrixport 報道，美聯儲成員上調了通脹預期，理由是擔心特朗普潛在的關稅政策，而不是供應瓶頸或增長率等傳統經濟因素。
Matrixport 的通脹模型表明，這些擔憂可能被誇大了，這可能會讓美聯儲在 2025 年之前維持寬鬆政策。在特朗普的第一個任期內，類似的關稅對通脹幾乎沒有影響。這表明美聯儲當前的預測可能與經濟現實不符。
技術分析指出更深層次的調整
三位著名分析師將 95,000 美元dent爲Bitcoin的關鍵價格水平。 Tone Vays 警告稱，低於該閾值的交易可能會導致回調至 73,000 美元。這一分析與 Peter Brandt 對“擴大三角形”模式的dent一致，該模式預計價格可能會跌至 70,000 美元。
鏈上數據支持這些技術警告。價格分析顯示，當前水平與 70,085 美元之間的錢包支撐有限，形成交易員所說的“露天”低於 93,806 美元的水平。
另一方面，@fundstrat認爲#Bitcoin $BTC到 2025 年可能會達到 250,000 美元，但首先，根據@MarkNewtonCMT 的說法，下跌至 60,000 美元即將到來。 pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4
—阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日
This gap in strong support levels means Bitcoin could move quickly through this range if selling pressure increases. The concentration of predictions around the $70,000-$73,000 range from different analytical approaches adds weight to this target zone.
Historical price patterns from previous bull markets help explain why these support levels matter. Past corrections during bull markets have often found support at previous resistance levels, making the $70,000 area particularly important as it marked Bitcoin’s previous all-time high before the recent breakout. This price zone also coincides with institutional entry points from late 2024, suggesting potential buying interest at these levels.
Political and monetary policy risks
According to Matrixport, the Fed’s monetary policy outlook faces new pressures as Trump’s presidency approaches. The FOMC may adopt a more hawkish stance in response to potential fiscal policies under Trump. This could create uncertainty for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This shift marks a change from December 2021, when the move away from near-zero interest rates began a new policy cycle.
The regulatory situation has often influenced Bitcoin bull markets at key turning points. Past examples show how regulatory actions can end bull cycles.
China’s PBoC banned banks from crypto dealings in January 2017, the SEC took action against unregistered fundraising in December 2017, and China restricted crypto mining in May 2021. While many regulatory concerns have eased with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, new policy challenges could come up.
Looking ahead to 2025, the interaction between Trump’s fiscal policies and Fed responses may determine Bitcoin’s price direction. Matrixport’s inflation model, which predicted the 2023 bull market when others forecasted recession, suggests inflation should not pose major problems next year.
However, the combination of new fiscal policies, changing Fed responses, and evolving regulatory frameworks creates a complex environment for Bitcoin’s price development through 2025.
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