12 月結束時Bitcoin面臨 2 萬美元暴跌風險：本週關於Bitcoin瞭解
最近幾周，Bitcoin在 108,000 美元阻力區域附近呈現出上升盤整格局。這一階段因大型市場參與者拋售壓力加大和分銷活動而中斷，導致股價急劇下跌 15%。 價格在約 90,000 美元處找到支撐，與長期看漲價格通道的中間邊界一致。該區域是抵禦更深層次調整的關鍵防線。 技術分析強調，從當前支撐位反彈可能爲重新嘗試收復 108,000 美元大關鋪平道路。相反，未能維持支撐可能會導致更大幅度的調整，通道下限接近 75,000 美元將成爲下一個關鍵支撐位。 從 BTC日線圖上可以看出，臨時支撐出現在較低趨勢線 94,164 美元附近，與關鍵移動平均線保持一致。指標顯示短期可能反彈；然而，總體情緒仍然較爲悲觀。 TradingView 的最新數據反映了Bitcoin的持續掙扎，比特幣/美元仍較上週的歷史高點下跌 13,000 美元。據交易員兼分析師 Rekt Capital 稱，BTC 在周線圖上形成了看跌吞沒燭臺形態。這一發展，加上關鍵的每週支撐位的喪失，標誌着五週上升趨勢的結束。 #BTCBitcoin盤中交易圖表：上升盤整和近期回調
看跌指標打壓價格走勢
每週支持已丟失（藍色）
5周技術上升趨勢結束（橙色）
Bitcoin顯示出越來越多的跡象表明其將進入多周調整
如果需要的話，任何對這些舊支撐的救濟集會可能會將它們變成新的阻力...... https://t.co/ZpfhWCtdt6 pic.twitter.com/U7d2zGOnpf
Rekt Capital further warned of Bitcoin’s potential transition into a multi-week correction phase. Any relief rally may face resistance at previously lost support levels, reinforcing the likelihood of additional downside continuation.
Indicators such as the RSI (14), currently at 42, show mild recovery but remain in bearish territory. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI’s bullish cross in the oversold region suggests short-term upward momentum, though the MACD’s bearish crossover persists, indicating weakening momentum.
Holiday trading periods often introduce heightened volatility due to reduced liquidity in the market. As liquidity profiles thin during these out-of-hours trading sessions, price movements can become exaggerated.
Market commentator Mark Cullen identified two critical liquidity zones into 2025: $115,000 and sub-$80,000. He questioned which level would be tested first and suggested the potential for significant price swings to target both.
A drop to $80,000 would align with historical bull market corrections. Glassnode’s data indicates that prior Bitcoin cycles experienced dips of 20% or more on the path to new all-time highs.
Interestingly, the severity of #Bitcoin drawdowns during bull market uptrends has declined as the market grows. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (Aug 5, 2024), with most corrections only -25% below local highs, reflecting spot ETF demand & rising institutional interest. pic.twitter.com/wpanco629S
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 21, 2024
Despite the current cycle’s relative stability, the deepest drawdown of -32% in August 2024 echoes the crypto’s inherent volatility. Spot ETF demand and rising institutional interest have also tempered with price fluctuations, as the market seems to be sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
On-chain metrics: Network activity is less than previous highs
Bitcoin’s active addresses, a key on-chain metric, reveal a divergence between price action and network activity. While the 100-day moving average of active addresses has rebounded, it has yet to reach its all-time high. This discrepancy suggests that a prolonged correction could occur if network activity declines further.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut of 0.25% dampened risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, experienced renewed pressure as the prospect of additional rate cuts diminished.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, BTC’s price is exhibiting a notable correlation with the global money supply (Global M2). Historically, Bitcoin prices have followed Global M2 with a lag of approximately 10 weeks.
Over the past two months, Global M2 has dropped by $4.1 trillion, from a record $108.5 trillion in October to $104.4 trillion in December, the lowest level since August.
This decline signals potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices if the trend persists. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the significance of this relationship, saying:
“As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last two months, however, money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion. If the relationship still holds, this suggests that Bitcoin prices could fall as much as $20,000 over the next few weeks.”
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BTC’s growing illiquid supply offers a counterbalance. André Dragosch of Bitwise highlighted this trend, noting that a higher illiquid supply indicates increased scarcity, which could support Bitcoin’s price.
While macro factors continue to exert downward pressure, on-chain tailwinds from Bitcoin’s supply deficit may mitigate the impact.
Dragosch expects BTC to remain volatile in early 2025 but believes the scarcity dynamics driven by its illiquid supply could provide attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors.
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