美聯儲預計將在今天的 FOMC 會議上降息 25 個基點
新加坡數字資產公司 QCP Group 12 月 18 日發佈的最新消息顯示，美聯儲可能會在今年最後一次美聯儲會議期間宣佈降息 25 個基點。此次會議定於12月18日舉行，此次降息將是美聯儲今年發起的第三次降息。
該公司還推測，此次降息可能是美聯儲一段時間內的最後一次降息。 QCP Group 表示，美聯儲在聲明中將“不置可否”，因爲dent總統唐納德·特朗普就職後沒有明確的降息前景。該公司仍預計 2025 年將進行三次降息。
央行將於美國東部時間下午 2:00 發佈聲明，公佈其利率決定和明年的“點陣圖”。 《紐約時報》報道稱，預期降息後借款利率將最終達到 4.4%。
美聯儲於 9 月份開始降息，以降低消費者價格並改善就業和勞動力市場。經濟保持在目標之上，呈現顯着增長。儘管通貨膨脹在 11 月份停滯不前，勞動力市場和該國的就業仍保持穩定。
在《紐約時報》最近的一次活動中，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，他對美國當前的經濟形勢和貨幣政策感到滿意。鮑威爾仍然提到，美聯儲可以“保持一點謹慎”。
11月通脹報告給美聯儲降息帶來不確定性
11 月份通脹再次上升，符合分析師在今年最終報告中對降息前消費者價格上漲的預期。 https://t.co/W8O9pMNzNK pic.twitter.com/YVkC1euxxg
—福布斯 (@Forbes) 2024 年 12 月 11 日
The U.S. National Bureau of Statistics recently released the November inflation report, causing economic uncertainty among analysts. The report indicated that consumer prices spiked 2.7% year-on-year compared to October’s 2.6% rise. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2% from last month’s 3.7%. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) also rose by 0.4% from October.
Some Fed officials mentioned that it was time for the central bank to slow down and find the policy balance. The current sentiment revolved around whether the implementations would tighten policies, leading to an economic slowdown, or ease policies, influencing economic growth.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem suggested earlier this month that the Fed should slow down on rate cuts. Musalem still did not specify when the Fed was supposed to pause. The Fed official also stated that the central bank was nearing its employment and price stability goals.
Richmond’s Fed Reserve president, Tom Barkin, also supported a slower approach to Fed rate cuts. Barkin explained that a ‘slower, more careful path’ would allow the central bank to reach a slightly restrictive policy level that could help it achieve the neutral rate sooner.
QCP Group expects an insignificant effect on the markets
QCP Group speculated that the rumored Fed rate cut might have little to no effects on capital and crypto markets. The firm still explained that investors should watch out for decreasing market liquidity, which could indicate ‘gappy moves’ and incoming large liquidations.
The Singaporean firm further speculated on the BTC price movement after the Fed meeting, saying that the technical outlook was cautious. They suggested that today’s price movement indicated a bearish divergence. The coin has dropped by over 2.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $104,910 at the time of writing.
QCP still warned investors not to short their positions despite any price drop BTC might experience. The firm explained that the long-term outlook for the coin was bullish, especially with the incoming pro-crypto president, Trump.
From Zero to Web3 Pro: Your 90-Day Career Launch Plan
推薦文章
