下次 FOMC 會議降息 25 個基點的可能性爲 98.6%
CME FedWatch 工具得出 FOMC 在即將舉行的爲期兩天的 12 月會議上建議降息 25 個基點的可能性爲 98.6%。儘管 11 月份通脹報告居高不下，但降息的可能性仍在上升。
11月份CPI（消費者價格指數）上漲，從10月份的2.6%升至2.7%。值得注意的是，這一漲幅與倫敦證券交易所集團 (LSEG) 調查的經濟學家的預期一致。 CPI 的上升使整體通脹數據進一步偏離美聯儲 2% 的目標利率。 Northlight資產管理公司首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)表示，通脹上升不足以破壞聖誕節。
通脹報告不會削弱12月降息的可能性
根據 CME FedWatch 工具，下週幾乎肯定會降息 25 個基點pic.twitter.com/bMrGwredGv
— Tunc Satiroglu (@kanalfinans) 2024 年 12 月 12 日
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps during the next policymakers’ meeting rose from 94.7% to 98.6%, even as inflation edged slightly higher in November.
Zaccarelli claimed that next week’s interest rate cut would enable markets to rally into the end of the year. He added that the Fed is likely to look through these recent month-to-month headline CPI fluctuations to continue on its easing path.
The Fed began the ongoing rate-cutting cycle with a huge 50 bps cut in September, followed by another 25 bps cut in November.
EY chief economist Gregory Daco and senior economist Lydia Boussour expected the Fed to continue cutting rates despite the latest inflation data. They thought it should be a closer call for the policymakers than the markets indicated.
“We believe economic fundamentals of gently decelerating labor market momentum, strong productivity growth and disinflationary under-currents would support a further 25 bps fed funds rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.”
–Daco and Boussour
Nearly 90% of the economists polled by Reuters expected the 25 bps reduction to bring the federal fund rate down to the 4.25%—4.50% range. However, there was no clear consensus among the polled economists about what the Fed would do beyond the January 2025 FOMC meeting.
Fed chair says the pace of interest rate cuts depends on economic conditions
Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said that the U.S. central bank was gradually lowering interest rates and would adjust the pace of rate cuts as needed based on economic conditions. He explained that monetary policy would be adjusted to best promote the country’s price stability and maximum employment goals.
According to Powell, the Fed would dial back policy restraint more slowly if the economy remained strong and inflation did not sustainably move towards 2%. He said the Fed would move quicker if the labor market weakened unexpectedly or inflation fell faster.
The Fed chair pointed out that the economy was not signaling the need to lower interest rates quickly. He added that the country’s economic strength allowed the Fed to approach its decisions carefully. The policy rate path would ultimately depend on how the economic outlook and incoming data evolved.
Powell said the smart move would be to navigate between moving too fast and too slow to ensure the Fed got it right. Going down the middle would help support the labor market and bring inflation down.
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