由於貿易戰擔憂影響經濟，中國消費者通脹率仍低於預期
國家統計局報告稱，中國11月份消費者通脹增速低於預期，僅比去年同期上漲0.2%。路透社調查的分析師預計 11 月價格將上漲 0.5%，而不是 10 月上漲 0.3%。
中國生產者價格指數連續第26個月下降，11月份降幅爲2.5%，低於路透調查中分析師預測的2.8%。出廠價格降幅也較去年同期有所收窄。排除波動較大的燃料和食品價格後，11 月份核心通脹率從 10 月份的 0.2% 上升 0.3%。
豬肉和鮮菜價格同比分別上漲13.7%和10%。黑色金屬材料價格下降7.1%，工業生產者購進價格指數下降。化學原材料下跌5%，燃料電力下跌6.5%。
專家認爲貿易戰中中國通貨緊縮將持續
由於貿易戰擔憂導致經濟放緩，中國消費者價格漲幅低於預期https://t.co/rC1SLLfQVd
— CNBC (@CNBC) 2024 年 12 月 9 日
Erica Tay, the director of macro research at Maybank, said that China’s PPI deflation still seemed ‘quite entrenched’ although it had narrowed slightly. She told CNBC that accumulated producer inputs and finished goods inventories were sizable and grew from month to month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, persistent near-zero retail inflation showed that China’s economy struggled with low domestic demand as wholesale prices remained deflationary. Domestic demand remained sluggish despite Beijing’s series of stimulus efforts since September, which included interest rate cuts, support for stock and property markets, and efforts to incentivize bank lending.
“We believe deflation will continue in China, especially based on the previous experience during trade wars.”
~ Becky Liu, Head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank
Liu said that PPI inflation typically fell to negative territory during trade wars, referencing the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. She pointed out that the situation was no different, adding that China’s producer price index inflation was likely to remain negative the following year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s near-zero CPI figures will continue into 2025
The investment bank’s analysts similarly projected that China’s near-zero consumer price index figures would persist next year. The analysts, however, noted that some parts of the economy showed signs of recovery. China reported strong retail sales growth in October, beating expectations from Reuters analysts. In November, the second-largest economy in the world also showed expansion in manufacturing activities for two months in a row, according to Goldman Sachs.
According to CNBC, top Chinese leaders are expected to meet at the Central Economic Work Conference starting December 11th to discuss 2025’s stimulus measures and economic goals.
On December 9th, Fitch Ratings reduced their forecast of China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.3%. The credit rating agency adjusted its September projections for 2026 growth downwards from 4.3% to 4%. Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings Chief Economist, assumed that the U.S. trade policies towards China would take a sharp ‘projectionist turn’ for 2025 and 2026. He noted that an extended decline in the property market posed a critical risk to the agency’s forecast, although there were ‘tentative signs of stabilization’.
Notably, China will report its November trade data and retail sales on December 10th and December 16th, respectively.
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