金融市場對英國央行遏制通脹的能力缺乏信心
據《金融時報》報道，英國央行 (BoE) 面臨金融市場對其實現 2% 通脹目標能力的質疑。報告顯示，儘管英國央行的實際數據顯示在抑制通脹方面取得了積極進展，但金融市場仍對英國央行的官方預測持懷疑態度。
去年，英國央行預測通脹率爲 3%，因爲到 2024 年底，利率和失業率均保持在 5% 以上。然而，報告顯示通脹回落，接近 2% 的目標，情況變得更加積極。利率降至 4.75%，失業率低至 4.3%。
英國央行在持續通脹壓力下應對市場疑慮
英國金融市場預計英國央行不會達到 2% 的通脹目標。
這在國際上是不尋常的
他們預計未來 50 年左右的通貨膨脹率平均爲 3%……。
…到底是怎麼回事？
我最新的https://t.co/QBLYhH9g6T
註冊https://t.co/9W1LiN2e7a pic.twitter.com/S0KtPvinOu
—克里斯·賈爾斯 (@ChrisGiles_) 2024 年 11 月 26 日
Clare Lombardelli, the BoE’s deputy governor for monetary policy, gave a speech yesterday at the annual BoE watchers’ conference seeking to address issues about the central bank’s credibility, policy, and forecasting. However, her speech gave several explanations for the market’s persistent belief in higher UK inflation, including doubt about RPI change.
Despite the seemingly good inflationary outcome, Lombardelli declared it was too early to declare victory on inflation. She noted that the outlook on salaries and services inflation was ‘unclear from here’ because the pace of wage growth was not slowing as much as expected.
Lombardelli warned the conference that a scenario in which companies and workers get used to wage rises of 3.5% to 4% and price inflation of 3% would be more costly to change if it becomes entrenched. However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank predicted that inflation in the UK could rise to 3% in 2025.
“But at this point, I am more worried about the possible consequences if the upside materialised, as this could require a more costly monetary policy response.”
– Clare Lombardelli
Lombardelli said that she supported the gradual removal of monetary policy restrictions and would be monitoring the flow of data over the coming months so that the BoE could calibrate its policy path as needed.
Lombardelli addresses market doubts as other experts weigh in on the UK’s economic outlook
Lombardelli acknowledged the financial markets’ concerns and said the BoE was working to improve its forecasting models. While she admitted that the BoE’s efforts to improve its models were ongoing, Lombardelli confirmed that the changes in how the UK’s central bank predicted the future would be huge.
She expressed a ‘hawkish’ view on inflation, suggesting that the risks of inflation lasting for too long outweighed the risks of lower inflation. Her colleague on the monetary policy committee, Swati Dhingra, shared most of her sentiments but viewed the risks differently.
Overall, Lombardelli disclosed that the BoE was planning to gradually reduce its monetary policy until it had more information about inflation’s behavior. She also outlined the central bank’s plan to implement reforms suggested by Ben Bernanke, a former U.S. Fed chair and Nobel Prize winner.
Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, argued that central banks should aim to bring inflation down after periods of high inflation. DeAnne Julius, former UK monetary policy committee member, emphasized that the UK could face stagflation since the general economic outlook was more pessimistic.
Martin Sandbu argued that Europe needed to save less and suggested different policy changes to achieve this. He pointed out that many of the suggested policy changes were unpopular with the BoE.
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