投資者警告tron美元將衝擊新興市場債券
英國《金融時報》的一份報告顯示，投資者對即將dent內美元的tron感到擔憂。該報告強調，投資者預計美元tron將擾亂新興市場債券的回報。
報告顯示，投資者還擔心強勢tron可能引發資金外流。報告指出，發達國家已經長期處於高利率狀態。摩根大通的一份報告指出，trac的資金利率較高，而這些資金原本會流入新興市場。
摩根大通還公佈了過去幾年新興市場資金淨流出的數據。 11月8日，新興市場債券錄得32億美元淨流出，創約兩年來最大流出量。摩根大通報告提到，投資者預計新興市場資產將面臨特朗普政策的壓力。今年，新興市場債券的總流出額達到200億美元，低於2023年的310億美元和2022年的900億美元。
全球市場一直在處理特朗普的交易，這對股票、加密貨幣和股票市場的投資者來說是一種欣喜若狂的狀態。路透社的一篇文章透露，減稅和寬鬆的監管加劇了這種興奮。然而，特朗普政策帶來的通脹預期可能會推動美元走強和美國國債收益率飆升。
多種貨幣兌美元走弱
美元 WREC KIN球
美元傷害了新興市場——墨西哥、巴西、中國，甚至歐洲
將他們的股票市場與美國進行比較
看看降息預期
他們已經減少了。因此美元可能很快就會見頂$EWZ $EEM $EWW $FXI $SPY … pic.twitter.com/KgUMFAe3gm
— Ram Ahluwalia CFA，Lumida (@ramahluwalia) 2024 年 11 月 22 日
Multiple currencies, including the Euro, the Brazilian Real, and the Japanese Yen, are weakening as the US dollar’s strength increases. The dollar has been crushing other currencies since the Fed began cutting rates aggressively in September. Notably, the Fed also cut rates in November, with economists forecasting more rate cuts until mid-2025.
Local currencies involved in emerging bond markets are feeling most of the pressure. Emerging debt manager Paul McNamara from GAM explained the downward pressure tariffs will exert on emerging market currencies. McNamara insisted on the negative impact the reduced ‘debt investors’ returns in dollar terms,’ which would have on emerging markets.
That said, multiple emerging market currencies are 4% down against the US dollar. The Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso are down by around 2%. On the other hand, the South African Rand is down at least 4% against the dollar.
The Euro also recently hit a two-year low against the dollar amid political tensions in Europe. On November 22, the EUR traded just above $1.03 against the dollar, the lowest since November 2022.
Trump still wants a weaker US dollar
During the last term of Trump’s presidency, the president-elect insisted on the need for a weaker dollar to fuel the country’s business with other countries. In 2019, Trump mentioned that a strong dollar would be great for the U.S.; a very strong dollar would discourage international business with the country.
At the time, Trump had accused China and European countries of devaluing their currencies to compete with the U.S. In his opinion, the incoming president said that the country should match the currency manipulations other countries allegedly engaged in.
“We should MATCH, or continue being the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games – as they have for many years!”
–Donald Trump, U.S. President-elect
During his presidential campaign this year, the president-elect shared his mission of weakening the dollar. However, a Wall Street Journal report outlined that Trump might not be able to achieve a weaker dollar. More importantly, the report discussed how the current trend in U.S. markets might achieve the opposite effect.
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