市場等待本週美聯儲11月7日利率公佈
根據CME GROUP的數據，11月6日至7日舉行的下一次聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議很有可能建議美聯儲降息0.25%。政策利率預計將從4.75%下調至4.50%。
經濟學家預測，即將召開的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議將繼續投票支持美聯儲9月份開始的寬鬆週期中啓動的降息舉措。路透社調查的超過90%的經濟學家dent，到2024年底，美聯儲基金利率將降至4.25%-4.50%的區間。近80%的經濟學家預計，美聯儲基金利率將進一步降至4.25%-4.50%的區間。到 2025 年底從 3.0% 升至 3.50%。
加密貨幣市場觀察人士將密切關注美國dent選舉
來自倫敦的早上好！這是🇺🇸選舉周！
📍 當前賠率顯示 DJ 特朗普領先
📍 週二是選舉日——預計市場會出現波動，尤其是比特幣、石油和美元
📍🇬🇧和🇺🇸預計週四將降息25個基點
📍 主要中型股收益報告… pic.twitter.com/9Cphjcwn5F— Alex Koh 博士 (@alexkoh) 2024 年 11 月 4 日
The pre-election crypto market volatility suggests that the 2024 U.S. presidential elections could be the most crypto-influenced yet. With the crypto community slightly leaning toward Trump, many hope that his victory and pro-crypto stance could solidify the use of U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins in foreign trade.
Crypto investors, including Mark Cuban, also continued to push for replacing U.S. SEC chair Gary Gensler, a stance strongly supported by Trump. A Bernstein September analysis report revealed that a Trump win could catapult Bitcoin price to over $80K. Meanwhile, memecoins such as the Dogecoin mentioned by Elon Musk during a few pro-Trump rallies could also be highly affected by election results.
Bitcoin’s upward movement matched pre-halving momentum as the crypto market reacted to the recent Fed rate cuts.
Dritan Nesho, the CEO of HarrisX, stated that everything, including Trump’s win, was possible in a statistically tied election race. A new national poll conducted by Forbes and HarrisX showed that Kamala Harris had a slight edge over Trump in what could turn out to be the most closely contested elections in the United States history.
“The race is a statistical tie, and it’s going to be a squeaker of an election. Trump has gained in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states.”
–Dritan Nesho
Goldman Sachs predicted approximately six successive 25 bps rate cuts starting in November 2024 through 2025. Economists reported no indications of rate cut interruptions. Radix Financial’s Amy Hubble disclosed that the Fed’s lowered rate would affect markets differently and in ‘different magnitudes.’
Weak jobs report unlikely to affect the Fed’s rate cuts
Fed policymakers claimed there was a strong chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates despite a weak jobs report showing an unemployment rate rise from 3.4% to 4.1% over the past 18 months. Only 12k jobs were added in October, well below the projected 113K jobs.
Nearly all Fed officials making public remarks about the last rate cuts expressed confidence in the unemployment rate at 4.1% and the reducing inflation to almost the desired 2%. According to San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly, there was no information suggesting the Fed wouldn’t continue reducing the interest rate.
Thomas Simons, the senior economist at Jefferies, said the current information did not suggest that the overall economy desperately needed easing, but 25 bps cuts were still expected in the next two FOMC meetings. Job creation and consumer spending looked particularly robust, while price pressures increased slightly since the initial Fed rate cuts in September.
推薦文章
