Polymarket鯨魚在向特朗普新賭注注入700萬美元后蒙受鉅額未實現損失
一位領先的 Polymarket 鯨魚又向特朗普的“Yes”代幣注入了 700 萬美元，押注於選舉勝利。隨着投注不斷升溫，市場操縱和風險頭寸在投注平臺上也變得越來越明顯。
過去幾天，Polymarket 上的鯨魚活動加速，其中既有真正的信徒，也有疑似市場操縱者。特朗普勝利的最新支持者之一繼續用 Kraken 的 703 萬美元新存款購買“Yes”代幣。新的資金流入增加了鯨魚爲支持特朗普潛在勝利而花費的 7000 萬美元。
在特朗普的“是”代幣從 0.66 美元跌至 0.61 美元后，鯨魚估計有 71.4 萬美元的未實現損失。
該賬戶是持有者，但還有其他交易者積極壓低特朗普獲勝的投注價格。有些賬戶甚至虧本出售，導致趨勢逆轉並增加波動性。
想知道爲什麼卡瑪拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 在 Polymarket 上的流行趨勢？
現在，一堆未命名的帳戶正在產生活動，正在虧本出售！
他們通過多種投注渠道操縱賠率，爲特朗普和共和黨製造下行壓力，以及上行壓力…… pic.twitter.com/DVpVyN2QgM
—雙層牀 (@wrongsns) 2024 年 10 月 31 日
Additional market pressure comes from arbitrage opportunities, with cross-selling possible on different betting markets. Traders recently noticed the Kamala Harris ‘Yes’ tokens were valued higher on PredictIt, leading to further market manipulation. The most recent trades show that Polymarket is not a reliable predictor of the true outcome of the US election.
Polymarket faces multiple betting pressures
Polymarket is still not considered an official prediction, as there are doubts about wash trading. In the past week, one buyer rushed enough orders to put Trump’s odds to 99%, costing around $3M. Currently, price pressures require much higher bids to sway the market.
The profile of traders betting on a Trump victory is different from that of the Kamala Harris side of the bet. Most of the Trump bets are concentrated through whale wallets. Bets on the opposite side are more widely distributed with small-scale buyers.
To further complicate the picture, some of the small-scale users on Polymarket may be airdrop farmers, expecting the platform will consider launching its native token. Up to 44% of Polymarket bets are under $50 and may be considered small-scale betting or outright airdrop mining. But it is the 0.01% of bets above $100K that have the biggest effects on the market and sway the chart the most.
The past month saw no lack of new users of every size, ready to bet on one of the biggest pairs in Polymarket’s history. In October, Polymarket added a total of 300,386 new accounts.
Open interest also went vertical at more than $358B for all markets. Of that open interest, up to 91% went to US election issues as of October 14, contracting slightly in the past two weeks. Despite this, whales with convictions still hold their positions, even with big unrealized gains.
Among the top 10 holders, only three hold unrealized gains, with the rest still waiting out the turbulence. At least four accounts are associated with Fredi9999, one of the top traders on Polymarket, and they reveal a mix of unrealized gains and losses.
Top trader on Polymarket not politically motivated
The identity of Polymarket’s top betting whale on the US elections has been confirmed as a French trader motivated by mathematics and odds more than by politics. The whale, whose biggest account Fredi9999 is at the top of the leaderboards, confirmed his identity for the Wallstreet Journal.
The trader, identified as a French national and going by the name of Theo for the Journal’s piece, said he was not politically motivated. He was also not trying to sway the perception of the elections, but he was confident in beating the odds. The Polymarket whale stated he only used personal funds to make the bets, though with no independent confirmation on the funding source.
The trader’s main intent is just to make money, which at least the lead Fredi9999 account achieved. After favorable buying, the account holds more than $1M in unrealized gains. At the same time, the bets made on a popular vote and electoral college win could erase $30M in positions if the elections go against Theo’s bets. At this point, Fredi9999 and all the related smaller accounts can hardly start unwinding their positions without sparking a market-wide panic and crashing the odds.
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