美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾今天將發表講話,預計將討論央行降息0.50%後的政策前景。鮑威爾的言論將成爲焦點,因爲經濟學家認爲美聯儲的錯誤可能會給經濟帶來損失。 路透社援引的一項新調查顯示,39%的經濟學家表示,錯誤地運用利率工具對抗通脹是最大的經濟風險。
在標準普爾全球美國製造業 PMI 和 9 月份 ISM 製造業報告即將發佈之前,加密貨幣市場也陷入平靜。前者是基於月度調查的指數,作爲製造業的績效衡量標準。後者由供應管理協會 (ISM) 製作,還解釋了製造業的任何trac或擴張。就業數據是本週值得關注的另一個重要經濟指標,因爲它主要影響美聯儲 11 月做出的下一個貨幣政策決定。
本週主要事件:
1. 美聯儲主席鮑威爾講話——週一
2. 9 月 ISM 製造業數據 – 週二
3. JOLTs 就業數據——週二
4. ADP 非農就業數據——週三
5. 10 月 OPEC 會議 – 週三
6. 首次申請失業救濟人數——週四
7. 九月就業報告……
—科比西信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2024 年 9 月 29 日
Data on US spending also explained the overall health of the economy. For August, consumer spending rose moderately but analysts see more potential rate cuts in Q4. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings predicts that the real GDP growth for the US is at 2.7% in 2024. The forecast is lower at 1.8% for 2025. The company continues to see a 25% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months.
Despite the economic woes and the crypto market’s muted performance on Monday, the year might end on a bull note for Bitcoin. The crypto is closing in September with monthly gains of around 8%. According to an analysis by Ali Martinez, only 4 September months since 2013 ended with gains. Historically, it also signified a positive Q4 on the calendar, with increasing monthly returns.
This means, despite the uncertainty due to economic and election results, a bullish close to 2024 doesn’t seem unlikely.