USD/CAD weakens to near 1.4250, FOMC Minutes in focus
- USD/CAD softens to near 1.4255 in Tuesday’s late American session.
- Trump said there is no pause on tariffs but is open to negotiations.
- Investors await the release of the FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.4255 during the late American session on Tuesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the Greenback as investors weigh the prospect of negotiations globally over US trade tariffs. The FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Thomas Barkin is set to speak.
US Customs and Border Protection said on Tuesday that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 US trade partners. Trump noted that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies, but yet hinting he would be open to some negotiations
Trump's minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the US was introduced last week. He had also previously imposed 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. However, he then announced some exemptions and delays. The easing fears of trade tension between the US and Canada provide some support to the CAD.
Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could exert some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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