Ripple Price Forecast: XRP’s 25% breakout bid on course as institutional and retail adoption steady

• XRP price consolidates on Friday, holding support at $2.11 ahead of a potential 25% inverse head and shoulders pattern’s breakout.
• Institutional and retail interest in XRP-linked products soars, with CME Group preparing to launch XRP futures in May.
• The RSI indicator is pulling back toward the midline, indicating an increase in bearish sentiment and suggesting a potential prolonged trend reversal.

Ripple (XRP) price consolidates, trading at $2.18 at the time of writing on Friday, following mid-week gains to $2.30. The rejection from this weekly high led to the price of XRP dropping to the previous day’s low at $2.11, followed by a minor reversal. Like most cryptocurrencies, XRP shows signs of exhaustion ahead of the weekend; however, the cross-border international remittance token has the potential to shake off the bearish sentiment amid steady institutional and retail adoption.

CME Group announces plans to launch XRP futures

The world’s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group, announced on Thursday its plan to launch XRP futures on May 19, pending regulatory review. As reported, traders will choose between a 2,500 XRP micro-sized contract and a larger 50,000 XRP contract.

According to Giovanni Vicioso, the CME Group’s Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products, the new investment vehicle will cater to the evolving digital asset landscape, which has seen a surge in interest in XRP-linked products among both institutional and retail investors.

The XRP futures will expand CME Group’s cryptocurrency products, which currently include Bitcoin futures, Ether futures, and Solana futures and options. Moreover, Coinbase derivatives launched XRP futures on Monday, offering market participants new tools to manage risk and gain exposure. This underscores the growing institutional and retail interest in XRP.

XRP price considers a 25% breakout to $2.74

XRP price holds above the 8-hour 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which sits at $2.15, and the neckline resistance level of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Reclaiming this level as support has reaffirmed the token’s bid for a 25% breakout to $2.74, a target determined by measuring the height of the pattern from the neckline down to the head and extrapolating above the breakout point, as shown in the chart.

XRP/USDT 8-hour chart

Traders would look for movement above the short-term 200 EMA resistance at $2.22 to ascertain the probability of gains toward $2.74. Previous resistance at $2.50 is worth considering before going all-in on XRP.

On the flip side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator’s position at 55.98 and retracing to the midline signals fading bullish sentiment around XRP, which could accelerate the downtrend towards support at $2.00. If the RSI indicator drops below the centerline, the XRP price might tumble amid heightened sell-side pressure.

According to Coinglass, the decline in Open Interest (OI) by 0.21% to $3.86 billion in the last 24 hours signals waning confidence or a lack of strong conviction among traders during the current consolidation phase. 

XRP derivatives data | Source: Coinglass 

Long liquidations outweigh shorts, hinting at mounting bearish pressure. Over the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $5.63 million, compared to $1.99 million in short liquidations, indicating that bullish traders face greater pressure as their positions are forcibly closed. The 4-hour liquidations data reinforce the bearish sentiment, with $1.13 million in long positions liquidated compared to approximately $3,430 in short positions.