EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.1350, bullish bias remains
- EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1370 in Friday’s early European session.
- The constructive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at the 1.1400-1.1415 region; the downside target to watch is 1.1280.
The EUR/USD pair strengthens to around 1.1370 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Hopes for a trade deal between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) provide some support to the Euro (EUR). Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.
Technically, the positive outlook of the EUR/USD pair remains in play as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
The first upside target for the major pair emerges in the 1.1400-1.1415 zone, representing the psychological level and the high of April 16. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.1495, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1546, the low of November 1, 2021.
On the flip side, the initial support level for EUR/USD is located at 1.1280, the low of April 16. The key contention level is seen at the 1.1100 round figure. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to 1.0888, the low of April 8.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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