USD: Firm data reports today may provide a boost – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) retains something of a softer undertone as the postelection rally ebbs a little (and continues to closely track the post-election pattern of trade from 2016), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD consolidates near term

ȚToday brings the usual deluge of US data reports ahead of the Thanksgiving break. The second reading of Q3 GDP is expected to show the US economy remains in very decent shape, growing at a 2.8% clip (unchanged from the preliminary reading). October Personal Spending is forecast to rise at a 0.4% clip on the month while headline and core PCE price readings are forecast to edge higher from September to 2.3% and 2.8% respectively.”

“These data may add to some policymakers’ concerns that progress on inflation has stalled since the summer. Decent growth and a pick-up in PCE price data combined may dampen expectations for a Fed ease next month at a time when policymakers already appear to be turning a bit more cautious on the rate outlook—reflected in yesterday’s minutes for the November FOMC.

“Firm data, Fed caution and Trump’s tariff threats combined will bolster prospects for the USD’s late year strength to persist into December.”