US Dollar loses steam ahead of US GDP, ADP employment data
- The US Dollar’s bullish momentum loses strength after weak job opening figures.
- A downbeat ADP employment report might increase the bearish pressure on the US Dollar.
- Failure to break the 104.55 resistance has brought 103.95 support into focus.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a moderately softer tone on Wednesday’s European session. Softer-than-expected JOLTS Job Openings sent US Treasury yields lower on Tuesday, increasing the negative pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Job Openings came in at the lowest level in more than three years in September. These figures cast some doubt on the health of the labour market ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision only one week away.
On Wednesday, the third quarter’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to show the world’s largest economy grew at a steady pace in the third quarter, in contrast with the rest of the world’s major economies.
The ADP Employment Report, however, might steal the show. The market consensus anticipates a significant decline in job creation that might increase concerns about the employment market, triggering a deeper US Dollar correction.
Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar shows signs of weakness ahead of key US releases
- US JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.44 million in September, while August’s reading was revised to 7.86 million from the 8.04 million previously estimated.
- Futures markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Fed at its meeting next week, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The chances of another 25 bps cut in December have increased to 76.6% from 72% at the start of the week.
- Later on Wednesday, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to show that the economy grew at a 3% annualized pace in the third quarter, the same pace as the previous quarter.
- The ADP Employment Report, however, is likely to add to the evidence of a loosening labor market, with a 115K increase in October, down from September’s 143K rise.
- On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index, The Fed’s inflation data of choice, is expected to show that price pressures continue to ease, with the core reading down to 2.6% yearly from 2.7% in September.
- The highlight of the week will be Friday’s NFP report, which is expected to show a significant decline in new payrolls. Such an outcome might hurt speculative demand on the US Dollar.
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DXY technical outlook: Showing signs of topping at 104.55
The DXY index keeps its bullish bias intact but the pair’s failure to break the resistance area above 104.55 might give fresh hopes for bears.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence and has crossed below the 50 level, a negative sign. The index, however, should slide below Friday’s low, at 103.95 to confirm a deeper correction and shift its focus towards 103.40. Resistances are at the 104.55 - 104.75 area and 105.20.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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