DXY: ADP employment, 3Q GDP on their way – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) traded 2-way overnight with gains on the back of strong consumer confidence but turned lower after JOLTS job openings slumped to lowest level since early 2021. DXY was last at 104.10, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Room for USD to retrace lower

“Moves reinforced our view for more 2-way trades in the USD this week amidst a slew of tier-1 data releases. Tonight, we have ADP employment, 3Q GDP before core PCE tomorrow and payrolls on Friday.”

“Daily momentum remains bullish but there are signs of it fading while RSI eased lower from overbought conditions. We see room for USD to retrace lower. That said, pullback may also be shallow ahead of US elections next week.”

“Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA). Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels.”