USD firm but well off overnight highs as yields slip – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed against the majors after dropping back from a retest of last week’s multi-week high early in Asian trade, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Key DXY support is 103.93

“Global stocks are firmer and crude prices are sharply lower following Israel’s strike on Iran. Markets are relieved that Iran’s oil facilities were not hit. WTI is down more than 6% on the session at writing, weighing on the MXN and pushing the USD nearer to key resistance at 20.09/10.”

“It’s payrolls week and wait for the US non-farm number Friday is likely to dampen trading to some extent over the course of the week. Estimates reflect the anticipated impact of severe weather October but there may also be cyclical factors at play in dampening job growth. Markets may look through a soft report to some extent, given the weather effect, but a very low print may force markets to reprice Fed risks again towards a more aggressive November rate cut again.”

“Early trading patterns so far this week suggest a more challenging technical environment for the dollar generally may be developing as DXY resistance in the mid-104s capped gains. Key DXY support is 103.93.”