Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could rise 10% upon a Trump win, investors de-risk ahead of election results

출처 Fxstreet

Ethereum price today: $ 2,450

  • Ethereum exchange reserve and ETF data reveal increased selling activity among investors.
  • ETH options data indicates a market in a "wait-and-see" mode.
  • Ethereum could rally 10% to test the $2,707 resistance level if it overcomes the $2,500 psychological barrier.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,450 on Tuesday, but it could stage a 10% rise to test the $2,707 key resistance level if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. However, on-chain data reveals uncertainty and short-term bearish pressure as ETH investors appear to be de-risking ahead of the election results.

Ethereum investors are de-risking ahead of election results

With the US presidential election already ongoing, Ethereum investors are de-risking as on-chain data reveals a mix of uncertainty and selling among traders.

Ethereum exchange reserve has been on the rise since October 31, increasing by over 220,000 ETH worth about $540 million, per CryptoQuant's data. An Increase in a digital asset's exchange reserve indicates higher selling pressure among investors.

Ethereum Exchange Reserve

Ethereum Exchange Reserve (Source: CryptoQuant)

A similar trend is noticeable in flows of Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded net outflows of $63.2 million on Monday — its highest since September 23, per Coinglass data. The outflows were dominated by an exodus from the following funds:

  • $31.9 million in Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) — its first day of outflows since launch.
  • $31.5 million in Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) — its highest since launch.
  • $10.8 million in Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH).

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) was the only ETH ETF with positive flows, seeing a net inflow of $11 million.

Meanwhile, ETH options data from trading platform Derive reveals uncertainty among most derivatives traders.

In its recent October Trading insights report, the platform noted that 30% of Ethereum's open interest is fixed on the $2800 calls. "This indicates less bullish sentiment from the market, expecting a moderate upswing for ETH of 6.5%, while for BTC this is 12.5%," the report states.

Derive analysts also noted that the 7-day and 30-day ETH skews are close to zero, indicating neutral market sentiment. "ETH's flat skew points to a market in wait-and-see mode, closely monitoring potential regulatory shifts that could affect the DeFi landscape," said Nick Forster, Derive Founder.

Considering Republican candidate Donald Trump's promises to make America a crypto nation and Democrat candidate Kamala Harris' unclear stance on digital assets, most crypto investors favor a Trump win. As a result, the current de-risking among investors could be a cautionary approach until the election results are announced.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could retest $2,707 resistance if it flips $2,500 psychological level

Ethereum is trading near $2,450, up 1% on the day, following $25.69 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, per Coinglass data. Long and short liquidations accounted for $16.70 million and $8.98 million, respectively.

The top altcoin is aiming to move above the resistance level near the $2,500 psychological important zone. This resistance level is also strengthened by a convergence of the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

If ETH successfully moves above the $2,500 resistance and the SMAs convergence, it could extend its rise by 10% to test the $2,707 resistance — a level ETH has failed to sustain an extended move above since August.

However, if ETH sees a rejection near the $2,500 level, it could decline toward a descending trendline extending from May 27 and near the $2,250 to $2,350 range — a historically high demand zone for the top altcoin.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending toward its midline. A move above it will strengthen the bullish momentum.

A daily candlestick close below $2,250 will invalidate the thesis.

Ethereum FAQs

Ethereum is a decentralized open-source blockchain with smart contracts functionality. Its native currency Ether (ETH), is the second-largest cryptocurrency and number one altcoin by market capitalization. The Ethereum network is tailored for building crypto solutions like decentralized finance (DeFi), GameFi, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), etc.

Ethereum is a public decentralized blockchain technology, where developers can build and deploy applications that function without the need for a central authority. To make this easier, the network leverages the Solidity programming language and Ethereum virtual machine which helps developers create and launch applications with smart contract functionality.

Smart contracts are publicly verifiable codes that automates agreements between two or more parties. Basically, these codes self-execute encoded actions when predetermined conditions are met.

Staking is a process of earning yield on your idle crypto assets by locking them in a crypto protocol for a specified duration as a means of contributing to its security. Ethereum transitioned from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism on September 15, 2022, in an event christened “The Merge.” The Merge was a key part of Ethereum's roadmap to achieve high-level scalability, decentralization and security while remaining sustainable. Unlike PoW, which requires the use of expensive hardware, PoS reduces the barrier of entry for validators by leveraging the use of crypto tokens as the core foundation of its consensus process.

Gas is the unit for measuring transaction fees that users pay for conducting transactions on Ethereum. During periods of network congestion, gas can be extremely high, causing validators to prioritize transactions based on their fees.

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