Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower below $2,800 after Trump imposes tariffs
- Gold price loses momentum to around $2,795 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump delivers on the promise of 25% levies on Canada and Mexico, a 10% duty on China.
- Fed rate-cutting cycle and safe-haven flows might help limit the Gold price’s losses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,795 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal faces some pressure from the stronger Greenback after US President Donald Trump set tariffs over the weekend.
On Saturday, Canada was notified that the United States will place 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico while China will be hit with 10% tariffs. Canadian energy will be tariffed at 10%, according to CTV. The tariffs will take effect on Tuesday. Canada, Mexico and China have vowed to respond to sweeping new tariffs on their exports to the US announced by Trump. This, in turn, boosts the US Dollar (USD) broadly and drags the USD-denominated commodity price lower.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle, safe-haven demand due to uncertainties and concerns over global economic growth, and robust central bank buying might provide some support to the precious metal. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research at Angel One Ltd, noted that gold prices surged over 2% last week as market players sought refuge in safe-haven assets amidst concerns about rate cuts and tariff ambiguity.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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