Gold price moves within striking distance of all-time peak touched in October
- Gold price catches fresh bids on Friday and resumes over a one-month-old uptrend.
- Worries about a fresh wave of global trade wars underpin the safe-haven commodity.
- Bets for more Fed rate cuts weigh on the USD and further benefit the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's brief pause and climbs to the $2,777 area, the highest level since October 31 during the Asian session on Friday. Investors remain concerned that US President Donald Trump's trade policies could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility, which continues to drive haven flows towards the precious metal. Moreover, the prospects for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) drag the US Dollar (USD) closer to the monthly low and turn out to be another factor that benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's comments that he would rather not have to use tariffs on China provide an additional boost to the global risk sentiment, though it does little to dent the bullish sentiment surrounding the Gold price. That said, slightly overbought conditions on short-term charts might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets around the XAU/USD and positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register strong weekly gains and has now moved well within striking distance of the all-time peak, around the $2,790 area touched in October.
Gold price bulls retain control on Trump uncertainty and weak US Dollar
- Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which continues to push the safe-haven Gold price higher on Friday.
- The US Dollar slides back closer to the monthly trough in reaction to Trump's remarks on Thursday that he will apply pressure on the Federal Reserve to bring down interest rates.
- The markets started pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of this year amid signs of abating inflationary pressures in the US.
- Trump said on Friday that his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping was friendly and that he could reach a trade deal with China and would rather not use tariffs.
- This eases worries that Trump's protectionist policies could boost inflation and supports prospects for further policy easing by the Fed, benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Traders now look forward to the flash PMIs for fresh insight into the global economic health, which might influence the broader risk sentiment and drive the XAU/USD.
Gold price could pause near all-time peak, around the $2,790 region
From a technical perspective, the emergence of some dip-buying on Thursday and the subsequent move up validate a bullish breakout through the $2,720-2,725 supply zone. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved on the verge of breaking into overbought territory, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for further gains. Hence, some follow-through momentum is more likely to confront a stiff hurdle near the all-time peak, around the $2,790 region.
On the flip side, immediate support is pegged near the $2,760-2,758 area, below which the Gold price could slide to retest the overnight swing low, around the $2,736-2,735 region. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,725-2,720 resistance-turned-support. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favor of bearish trades and pave the way for deeper losses.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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