WTI trades around $70.50, upside potential seems possible due to rising supply threats
- WTI may appreciate further due to rising expectations of supply threats amid US sanctions on major producers Russia and Iran.
- The US is considering further sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and Chinese banks to curb Russia's Oil revenue.
- Crude Oil prices gained ground as the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price corrects downwards after registering gains in the previous session, trading around $70.50 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Crude Oil prices rose amid growing expectations of tighter supplies driven by the implementation of additional US sanctions on major producers Russia and Iran.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the United States is considering further sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and may also impose sanctions on Chinese banks to curb Russia's Oil revenue and access to foreign supplies, which are fueling its war in Ukraine.
Additionally, optimism about China’s plans to ramp up economic stimulus could drive Oil demand. Chinese authorities, led by President Xi Jinping, have pledged to raise the fiscal deficit target next year, shifting policy focus to consumption to boost the economy amid looming 10% US tariffs threatening exports.
The price of crude Oil, often referred to as "liquid gold," also received a boost from improved market sentiment following recent interest rate cuts by central banks in Canada, Europe, and Switzerland. Traders are now focusing on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated. Such a move could stimulate economic growth and potentially increase oil demand, as lower borrowing costs are likely to have a positive impact on economic activity.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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