Crude Oil tries to claim $70 as geopolitics supports price
- Crude Oil flirts with a weekly gain of 5%, fueled by geopolitical news.
- Russia has put a Polish military base on top of its target list for the next retaliation.
- The US Dollar Index broke a fresh two-year high after preliminary European PMIs cast a recession shadow over Europe.
Crude Oil price steadies on Friday and tries to claim the $70 level after surging over 4.5% so far this week, fueled by fresh escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are rushing to get the tactical upper hand ahead of possible resolution talks once President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January 2025. One of the new elements in the escalation is that Russia apparently has put a Polish (Poland is a NATO member) military base at the top of its target list for any subsequent retaliation if Ukraine attacks again, Yahoo News reports.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is firmly up after European preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers came in substantially below estimates in November. The data suggests that business activity in the Eurozone Manufacturing and Services sectors contracted, fueling the US exceptionalism with an inflow in the US Dollar. Later on Friday, the US PMI numbers are going to be released and might fuel a second round of inflow in case of an upbeat surprise.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $69.55 and Brent Crude at $73.32
Oil news and market movers: Weight added to geopolitics
- In the next step in the escalation between Russia and Ukraine, Yahoo News reports that Russia has added a Polish military base to its list of targets for when Ukraine fires missiles again into Russia.
- Bloomberg reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to have a security meeting later this Friday. The agenda is still yet to be confirmed.
- OPEC+ delegates said they assume next month’s meeting on plans to restore Oil production will be held online rather than at their Vienna headquarters as originally planned, Reuters reports. The meeting is set to be held on December 1.
- At 18:00 GMT, the weekly Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is to be released. The previous count showed 478 rigs operational.
Oil Technical Analysis: Is it possible to scale up further?
Crude Oil price is set to close this week on a high note, booking nearly 5% of gains. However, traders have been asking themselves if there is more upside to this tension-fueled trade. Several analysts have pointed out that these recent moves might have been the last few steps towards any deal, with both countries just trying to pick up the best possible cards to be used during any negotiations.
On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.13 was tested earlier on Friday, and we must see a daily close above it if Crude Oil prices want to head higher. Next up is the 100-day SMA at $72.77. The 200-day SMA at $76.45 is still far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further.
On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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