USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds but struggles at 150.00 amid bearish pressure
- USD/JPY must clear 149.70 and 150.00 to regain bullish momentum.
- Key resistance lies at 151.99-152.32, confluence of Kijun-Sen and 200-day SMA.
- Failure to hold above 148.57 could open the door for a drop to 141.64.
The USD/JPY advances some 0.17% late during the North American session, yet it remains shy of the 150.00 figure after slumping to a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 148.09. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 149.73.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The pair is downwardly biased despite recovering some ground. USD/JPY buyers must clear the Tenkan-Sen at 149.70, which paves the way for further upside. The next resistance is 150.00, and a daily close above the latter could cement the chance to challenge the confluence of the Kijun-Sen and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 151.99-152.32.
Nevertheless, the path of least resistance is for a bearish continuation as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but USD/JPY needs to surpass below the February 25 swing low of 148.57, which could drive the pair towards the September 30 through at 141.64.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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