USD/CHF strengthens to near 0.8950 despite weak US economic data, tariff worries
- USD/CHF gains momentum to around 0.8950 in Wednesday’s early European session, adding 0.25% on the day.
- The cautious stance from the Fed supports the US Dollar.
- The risk-off mood and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
The USD/CHF pair edges higher to near 0.8950, snapping the four-day losing streak on Wednesday during the early European trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) recovers from an 11-week low despite weak US economic data and tariff worries from US President Donald Trump.
The cautious stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) helps limit the USD’s losses. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said late Tuesday that he will follow a wait-and-see approach regarding central bank interest rate policy until it is clear inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% goal. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that the US central bank needs greater clarity before considering interest rate cuts.
However, the soft US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index could weigh on investor sentiment and exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. The US Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 in February from 105.3 in January, its largest fall since August 2021. The result added to other weak data, pushing expectations toward two quarter-point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the next likely coming in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The uncertainty and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc (CHF). Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Europe's participation in Ukraine peace talks will be needed eventually but Moscow first wants to build trust with Washington, adding that a deal to end the conflict may still be far off.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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