USD/CHF extends downside below 0.9000 as US Retail Sales drop by most in two years
- USD/CHF edges lower to around 0.8990 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The weaker US Retail Sales undermine the US Dollar.
- The uncertainty and geopolitical risks might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair extends its decline to around 0.8990 during the early European session, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve (Fed) Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman are set to speak later on Monday. On Tuesday, the Swiss Industrial Production will be released.
US Retail Sales dropped by the most in nearly two years in January, weighing on the Greenback. Data released by the US Census Bureau on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped by 0.9% in January versus a 0.7% increase (revised from 0.4%) prior This figure came in weaker than the estimation for a decrease of 0.1%. Traders raised bets that the Fed would cut interest rates again as soon as June.
Meanwhile, US Industrial Production rose by 0.5% MoM in January, compared to 1.0% (revised from 0.9%) in December. This reading came in better than the estimation of a 0.3% rise.
Trump administration officials are preparing to meet with Russian officials on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible agreement on ending the war in Ukraine. If talks between U.S. and Russian officials improve the odds of a peace deal being reached that ends the war, safe-haven buying demand may diminish. However, the uncertainty and geopolitical concerns are likely to boost the Swiss Franc (CHF).
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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