EUR/USD struggles under the weight of the Greenback
- EUR/USD slumped back into the 1.0400 handle on Thursday.
- German data looms ahead on Friday, followed by key US inflation figures.
- Fiber traders wait to see if the Fed’s rate call this week was the right one.
EUR/USD shifted lower for a fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, peaking near 1.0450 before softening to shed one-fifth of one percent on the day and ending just below the 1.0400 handle as the Euro’s near-term bull run draws to an end. A slate of German economic figures are due early Friday, followed by a key US inflation reading.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit newswires during Thursday’s early US market session to soothe markets over the recent soft patch of European data, noting that a single month or quarter of souring data doesn’t necessarily mean a trend is being established. The ECB head may come to regret those remarks with German Retail Sales figures and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the barrel for early Friday.
German Retail Sales are expected to hold steady at 2.5% YoY for the annualized period ending in December, while the MoM figure is expected to barely recover ground to 0.2% after November’s downside print of -0.6%. Headline German CPI inflation is likewise expected to hold steady at 2.6% for the year ended in December, holding frustratingly above the typical central bank targets of 2%.
US economic data was mixed on Thursday, leaving markets further confused. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 came in lower than expected, while weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures exceeded expectations and remained well within recent norms.
On Friday, US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) inflation metrics will be released during the US market session. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred method for measuring and tracking consumer-level inflation, this PCEPI report is likely to attract more attention than usual after the Fed boldly maintained interest rates earlier this week, despite President Trump’s strong objections.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD’s soft stance on Thursday marked another bearish rejection of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0450. The Fiber has soured for four consecutive sessions, leaving the pair on the low end of key technical levels as the latest bullish recover sputters.
The pair is still holding on the high side of the last major swing low into two-year bottoms south of 1.0200 reached earlier in the month. However, bulls are poised to fully run out of gas and drag the pair back into the 1.0300 region.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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