EUR/USD refreshes two-year low as traders reassess Fed policy outlook
- EUR/USD slumps to near 1.0200 as the US Dollar remains firm on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates only once this year.
- Traders pare Fed dovish bets after upbeat US NFP data for December.
- ECB’s Lane supports more rate cuts to ensure the Eurozone doesn’t grow too slowly.
EUR/USD slides to a fresh over two-year low to near 1.0200 at the start of the week. The major currency pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) performs strongly amid soaring bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 110.00, the highest level seen in over two years. 10-year US Treasury yields trade close to a fresh yearly high at around 4.75%
US bond yields rallied amid growing speculation that the current policy-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has paused for now. Fed dovish bets squeezed after the release of the upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December on Friday. Fresh payrolls were surprisingly higher than November’s reading, and the Unemployment Rate decelerated.
"Given a resilient labor market, we now think the Fed cutting cycle is over," Bank of America (BofA) said in a note. The BofA added that the economic activity is “robust,” and sees “little reason for additional easing”. The bank also noted that risks to inflation have skewed to the upside.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before its June policy meeting.
This week, investors will pay close attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines as risk-off mood weighs on Euro
- EUR/USD faces selling pressure due to dismal market sentiment, which has weighed heavily on the Euro (EUR). Investors have become risk-averse amid uncertainty that protectionist policies under US President-elect Donald Trump's administration will lead to a global trade war, diminishing the appeal of risk-perceived assets.
- Donald Trump is considering a declaration of national economic emergency that will allow him to construct a new tariff plan on legal grounds. In the election campaign, Trump threatened that the European Union (EU) would have to “pay a big price” for not buying “enough American exports”.
- Domestically, firm expectations of more policy-easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) keep the Euro on the back foot. In a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025 on Monday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that more interest rate cuts from the central bank are likely as they need to make sure that the economy does not grow “too slowly”. Lane added that the ECB needs to choose the middle path of being “neither too aggressive nor too cautious” this year.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD posts fresh two-year low at 1.0200
EUR/USD declines to near the key support on the weekly chart, plotted from the September 2022 high of 1.0200. The outlook for the major currency pair is broadly bearish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0580 is declining.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 30.00, indicating a strong downside momentum.
Looking down, the pair could find support near the round level of 1.0100. Conversely, the January 6 high of 1.0437 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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