USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand, move back above 1.4100 awaited
- USD/CAD regains some positive traction and draws support from a combination of factors.
- Crude Oil prices remain depressed and undermine the Loonie amid Trump’s tariff threats.
- The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional near-term gains.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's pullback from the highest level since April 2020 and trades around the 1.4070 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
The long-running Middle East conflict de-escalated after US President Joe Biden announced that Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal. This, in turn, fails to assist Crude Oil prices to capitalize on Tuesday's modest bounce from over a one-week low. This, along with US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats, continues to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. Adding to this, expectations for a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and validate the positive outlook for the USD/CAD pair.
From a technical perspective, this week's bounce from the 1.3930-1.3925 horizontal support and positive oscillators on the daily support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength back above the 1.4100 mark before placing fresh bullish bets. Spot prices might then aim to challenge the multi-year peak and reclaim the 1.4200 round figure. The momentum could eventually lift spot prices to the 1.4265 intermediate hurdle en route to the April 2020 high, around the 1.4300 mark.
On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 1.4045 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 1.4000 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might negate the constructive setup. The USD/CAD pair might then weaken further below the 1.3930-1.3925 horizontal support and the 1.3200 round figure, towards testing the next support near the 1.3855 area en route to the monthly swing low, around the 1.3825-1.3820 region.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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