Canadian Dollar crumples even further on Friday
- The Canadian Dollar continued its march lower on Friday.
- Canada remains inconsequential on the economic calendar.
- CAD traders to wait for next Tuesday’s Canadian CPI print.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found fresh lows on Friday as broader markets continues to pivot into the safe haven Greenback. A slight miss in US Retail Sales was all it took to bolster the US Dollar and send USD/CAD into fresh multi-year highs.
Canada continues to remain absent from the economic calendar this week. A week of strictly low-tier, low-impact data has left the Canadian Dollar on the ropes, but next week’s Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print is unlikely to change matters much.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar waffles to fresh 54-month low
- The Canadian Dollar found a new four and a half year low on Friday, pushing USD/CAD into 1.4090 for the first time since May of 2020.
- Meaningful Canadian economic data remains entirely absent from the economic calendar.
- CAD traders are unlikely to get much of a push from next Tuesday’s Canadian CPI inflation print as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is already accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts in the face of rapidly-cooling inflation and a lopsided economy.
- Canada’s economic metrics continue to rely too much on already-high housing and shelter prices continuing to rise into the stratosphere.
- US Retail Sales beat forecasts, but still eased in October. Headline US Retail Sales eased to 0.4% compared to the expected 0.3%, falling away from September’s revised print of 0.8%.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
The sky’s the limit as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to shed weight against the Greenback; USD/CAD’s fresh push into multi-year highs has the pair testing bids just shy of 1.4100. The pair is on pace to close in the green for a sixth consecutive trading day as the CAD recedes against the US Dollar.
The nearest technical floor sits at the last swing low, lined up nearly perfectly with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3780.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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