美债收益率上升是特朗普牛市面临的最大挑战
华尔街投资者原本希望以传统的圣诞老人集会来结束今年，但到目前为止却感到失望。继上周末标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.1% 后，股指期货表明股市将继续陷入困境。
经济学家表示，2024 年对于华尔街来说是创纪录的一年。标准普尔 500 指数共 57 次创下历史新高，跻身历史记录前五年。过去一年，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 31% 以上，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 25%，道琼斯工业平均指数则上涨了14%。
然而，债券收益率上升给股市带来了挑战。基准 10 年期国债收益率上周收于七个月来的最高水平。自 9 月份以来，即使在美联储降息之后，收益率仍上涨了近一个百分点。
美国国债收益率可能给股市带来压力
分析师将债券收益率上升归因于对dent总统唐纳德·特朗普关税和税收政策的担忧。这些政策可能会加剧通货膨胀并扩大联邦defi，增加债券供应并抑制价格。
Evercore ISI 策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔 (Julian Emanuel) 警告称，即使更广泛的经济状况仍然有利，长期收益率也可能继续对股市施加中期压力。
伊曼纽尔在最近的一份报告中写道： “随着 2025 年的开始，长期债券收益率的上升对牛市构成了最大的挑战。”他指出，美联储 12 月会议后股市波动加剧。
债券市场正在达到顶峰，而原油市场则已触底，两者很大程度上都是由通胀推动的。由于其去中心化性质和供应有限，Bitcoin将自己定位为关键参与者，为传统资产贬值提供了替代方案。作为…
— GG (@LuillyDRR) 2024 年 12 月 27 日
Emanuel emphasized that while bond yields may pull back slightly in the short term due to elevated Treasury short positions and easing geopolitical tensions, the medium-term outlook remains challenging. The interplay between rising bond yields and equity valuations will be crucial in determining market trends in early 2025.
The strategist also predicts that a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% is manageable for equities, but a breach of 4.75% could trigger a deeper correction. Notably, stocks have shown resilience in periods of rising yields, advancing 117% since the bond market trough in 2020.
However, during periods when yields surpassed 4.5% or 4.75%, equities posted negative returns of -2.1% and -3.7%, respectively.
Corporate earnings bolstered by economic resilience
In 2024, earnings growth extended beyond the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, with the other 493 S&P 500 companies exiting their earnings recession. According to FactSet data, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 15% year over year in 2025.
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, notes that this earnings growth will likely sustain the bull market. “The weight of evidence suggests the primary market trend remains higher, driven by earnings growth in 2025,” Lerner stated in his market outlook.
The broader U.S. economy has also demonstrated resilience. November retail sales exceeded expectations, GDP growth remains above trend at 3%, and the unemployment rate continues to hover around 4%. While still elevated, inflation has shown signs of moderation, giving investors hope for a “soft landing” where prices stabilize without significant job losses.
Market tailwinds and headwinds into 2025
Several tailwinds are supporting market optimism heading into 2025. Record corporate profits are expected for a second consecutive year, with net profit margins projected to remain nearly 12%. Sectors beyond technology, including health care, industrials, and materials, are anticipated to see profit increases in the high teens.
However, headwinds are where economists are expressing little to no optimism. Federal Reserve officials now project the federal funds rate to fall to 3.9% in 2025, an increase from their earlier September estimate of 3.4%.
While the Fed delivered a substantial 50 basis point rate cut in September, most adjustments over the past year have been in smaller 25 basis point increments. The latest projections suggest the central bank anticipates two more rate cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts previously forecast in September.
BREAKING: Fed projections imply 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, another 50 bps in 2026.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2024
If interest rates are not accordingly cut in 2025, given the Federal Reserve’s commitment to combating inflation, it may risk a policy error that could potentially harm the labor market.
Additionally, analysts reckon that the Trump administration’s policies, while business-friendly, could introduce growth challenges through higher tariffs.
Tech stocks, which have driven much of the market’s gains, face potential stagnation as investors grow wary of excessive spending on artificial intelligence without corresponding earnings growth. While a collapse in tech valuations is unlikely, a moderation in valuations could shift investor focus toward undervalued sectors like health care and materials.
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