Matrixport分享2025年Bitcoin牛市面临的最大风险
贝莱德质疑比特币供应及随之而来的威胁
贝莱德曾对Bitcoin2100万供应上限的保障提出质疑。作为目前通过 ETF 涉足Bitcoin的最大资产管理公司之一，贝莱德的声明在市场讨论中颇具影响力。
谷歌宣布推出具有 105 个量子比特的“Willow”量子芯片，让量子计算威胁重新成为人们关注的焦点。虽然当前的量子技术无法打破Bitcoin的加密防御，但进步的速度引发了人们对长期安全性的质疑。报告指出，量子计算仍处于早期阶段，缺乏对Bitcoin安全模型构成直接威胁所需的规模。
美联储最新的通胀前景又增加了一层不确定性。据 Matrixport 报道，美联储成员上调了通胀预期，理由是担心特朗普潜在的关税政策，而不是供应瓶颈或增长率等传统经济因素。
Matrixport 的通胀模型表明，这些担忧可能被夸大了，这可能会让美联储在 2025 年之前维持宽松政策。在特朗普的第一个任期内，类似的关税对通胀几乎没有影响。这表明美联储当前的预测可能与经济现实不符。
技术分析指出更深层次的调整
三位著名分析师将 95,000 美元dent为Bitcoin的关键价格水平。 Tone Vays 警告称，低于该阈值的交易可能会导致回调至 73,000 美元。这一分析与 Peter Brandt 对“扩大三角形”模式的dent一致，该模式预计价格可能会跌至 70,000 美元。
链上数据支持这些技术警告。价格分析显示，当前水平与 70,085 美元之间的钱包支撑有限，形成交易员所说的“露天”低于 93,806 美元的水平。
另一方面，@fundstrat认为#Bitcoin $BTC到 2025 年可能会达到 250,000 美元，但首先，根据@MarkNewtonCMT 的说法，下跌至 60,000 美元即将到来。 pic.twitter.com/44rG8EVUV4
—阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日
This gap in strong support levels means Bitcoin could move quickly through this range if selling pressure increases. The concentration of predictions around the $70,000-$73,000 range from different analytical approaches adds weight to this target zone.
Historical price patterns from previous bull markets help explain why these support levels matter. Past corrections during bull markets have often found support at previous resistance levels, making the $70,000 area particularly important as it marked Bitcoin’s previous all-time high before the recent breakout. This price zone also coincides with institutional entry points from late 2024, suggesting potential buying interest at these levels.
Political and monetary policy risks
According to Matrixport, the Fed’s monetary policy outlook faces new pressures as Trump’s presidency approaches. The FOMC may adopt a more hawkish stance in response to potential fiscal policies under Trump. This could create uncertainty for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This shift marks a change from December 2021, when the move away from near-zero interest rates began a new policy cycle.
The regulatory situation has often influenced Bitcoin bull markets at key turning points. Past examples show how regulatory actions can end bull cycles.
China’s PBoC banned banks from crypto dealings in January 2017, the SEC took action against unregistered fundraising in December 2017, and China restricted crypto mining in May 2021. While many regulatory concerns have eased with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, new policy challenges could come up.
Looking ahead to 2025, the interaction between Trump’s fiscal policies and Fed responses may determine Bitcoin’s price direction. Matrixport’s inflation model, which predicted the 2023 bull market when others forecasted recession, suggests inflation should not pose major problems next year.
However, the combination of new fiscal policies, changing Fed responses, and evolving regulatory frameworks creates a complex environment for Bitcoin’s price development through 2025.
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