12 月结束时Bitcoin面临 2 万美元暴跌风险：本周关于Bitcoin了解
最近几周，Bitcoin在 108,000 美元阻力区域附近呈现出上升盘整格局。这一阶段因大型市场参与者抛售压力加大和分销活动而中断，导致股价急剧下跌 15%。 价格在约 90,000 美元处找到支撑，与长期看涨价格通道的中间边界一致。该区域是抵御更深层次调整的关键防线。 技术分析强调，从当前支撑位反弹可能为重新尝试收复 108,000 美元大关铺平道路。相反，未能维持支撑可能会导致更大幅度的调整，通道下限接近 75,000 美元将成为下一个关键支撑位。 从 BTC日线图上可以看出，临时支撑出现在较低趋势线 94,164 美元附近，与关键移动平均线保持一致。指标显示短期可能反弹；然而，总体情绪仍然较为悲观。 TradingView 的最新数据反映了Bitcoin的持续挣扎，比特币/美元仍较上周的历史高点下跌 13,000 美元。据交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 称，BTC 在周线图上形成了看跌吞没烛台形态。这一发展，加上关键的每周支撑位的丧失，标志着五周上升趋势的结束。 #BTCBitcoin盘中交易图表：上升盘整和近期回调
看跌指标打压价格走势
每周支持已丢失（蓝色）
5周技术上升趋势结束（橙色）
Bitcoin显示出越来越多的迹象表明其将进入多周调整
如果需要的话，任何对这些旧支撑的救济集会可能会将它们变成新的阻力...... https://t.co/ZpfhWCtdt6 pic.twitter.com/U7d2zGOnpf
Rekt Capital further warned of Bitcoin’s potential transition into a multi-week correction phase. Any relief rally may face resistance at previously lost support levels, reinforcing the likelihood of additional downside continuation.
Indicators such as the RSI (14), currently at 42, show mild recovery but remain in bearish territory. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI’s bullish cross in the oversold region suggests short-term upward momentum, though the MACD’s bearish crossover persists, indicating weakening momentum.
Holiday trading periods often introduce heightened volatility due to reduced liquidity in the market. As liquidity profiles thin during these out-of-hours trading sessions, price movements can become exaggerated.
Market commentator Mark Cullen identified two critical liquidity zones into 2025: $115,000 and sub-$80,000. He questioned which level would be tested first and suggested the potential for significant price swings to target both.
A drop to $80,000 would align with historical bull market corrections. Glassnode’s data indicates that prior Bitcoin cycles experienced dips of 20% or more on the path to new all-time highs.
Interestingly, the severity of #Bitcoin drawdowns during bull market uptrends has declined as the market grows. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (Aug 5, 2024), with most corrections only -25% below local highs, reflecting spot ETF demand & rising institutional interest. pic.twitter.com/wpanco629S
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 21, 2024
Despite the current cycle’s relative stability, the deepest drawdown of -32% in August 2024 echoes the crypto’s inherent volatility. Spot ETF demand and rising institutional interest have also tempered with price fluctuations, as the market seems to be sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
On-chain metrics: Network activity is less than previous highs
Bitcoin’s active addresses, a key on-chain metric, reveal a divergence between price action and network activity. While the 100-day moving average of active addresses has rebounded, it has yet to reach its all-time high. This discrepancy suggests that a prolonged correction could occur if network activity declines further.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut of 0.25% dampened risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, experienced renewed pressure as the prospect of additional rate cuts diminished.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, BTC’s price is exhibiting a notable correlation with the global money supply (Global M2). Historically, Bitcoin prices have followed Global M2 with a lag of approximately 10 weeks.
Over the past two months, Global M2 has dropped by $4.1 trillion, from a record $108.5 trillion in October to $104.4 trillion in December, the lowest level since August.
This decline signals potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices if the trend persists. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the significance of this relationship, saying:
“As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last two months, however, money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion. If the relationship still holds, this suggests that Bitcoin prices could fall as much as $20,000 over the next few weeks.”
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BTC’s growing illiquid supply offers a counterbalance. André Dragosch of Bitwise highlighted this trend, noting that a higher illiquid supply indicates increased scarcity, which could support Bitcoin’s price.
While macro factors continue to exert downward pressure, on-chain tailwinds from Bitcoin’s supply deficit may mitigate the impact.
Dragosch expects BTC to remain volatile in early 2025 but believes the scarcity dynamics driven by its illiquid supply could provide attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors.
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