过去两周加密货币投资者变得悲观——2025 年的预测还重要吗？
😱 在过去的两周里，加密货币大多数人的情绪以惊人的方式从看涨转向看跌。随着市值的调整（尤其是山寨币），人们对模因币的兴趣大大减少，而对Bitcoin兴趣则大大增加。这群 FUD 是健康的…… pic.twitter.com/9ByahLY7MZ
With the broader crypto market capitalization dropping to $3.47 trillion, a 2.2% downtick, per Coingecko data, the next steps for BTC and altcoins remain uncertain.
Bitcoin’s volatility; Path to $100K blocked?
Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride recently. Just last week, BTC reached a new all-time high, surpassing $108,000 for the first time. This surge was followed by a sharp reversal after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.
Bitcoin’s price plummeted below $100,000 and continued to fall, hitting a low of $92,000 by Friday. Although BTC briefly recovered to $99,000 on Saturday morning, the relief was short-lived, and it settled at $96,000 on Sunday.
This recent correction has left Bitcoin’s value down by approximately 12% from its peak of $108,000 on December 17. Despite some brief rallies, the overall trend appears to be bearish, with losses deepening as the market digests the rapid price swings.
The cryptocurrency asset hit an intraday low of $93,810 on Monday morning, only to recover slightly to $96,000. At press time, BTC is changing hands for just over $96,100 on popular exchanges like Binance.
BTC’s price movements have sparked concern among traders, particularly with the “bearish engulfing” weekly candle, a technical pattern that signals a potential continuation of the downward trend.
#BTC
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) December 23, 2024
Bitcoin has confirmed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick formation$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/KnIptVe958 pic.twitter.com/XwUWCkjTvM
According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the correction has now wiped out all of Bitcoin’s gains from the past month, leaving the market in a more “fragile” state.
Altcoins struggling in the wake of Bitcoin’s decline
Bitcoin’s pullback has had a ripple effect throughout the cryptocurrency market, particularly among altcoins. Many altcoins have experienced steep declines in the past few days, with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) seeing notable losses.
Ethereum failed to hold its ground above $3,500 and has since dropped to around $3,350, marking a 3.5% daily loss. XRP, another major altcoin, saw its price fall from just under $2.4 to $2.21 as the broader market downturn took hold.
Other altcoins, including Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Avalanche (AVAX), have faced even more significant daily declines. Some, like APT, have lost up to 3.4% in value in the last day, while the overall altcoin market remains deep in the red.
However, it is not all bleak in the altcoin space. AAVE, a decentralized finance (DeFi) token, has been a notable exception, gaining roughly 10% amid the broader market downturn. The asset now sits at the $338-$340 level, a notable price resilience in a largely negative market.
The broader altcoin market is grappling with losses, and many tokens are struggling to maintain their value. The recent downturn has left the market in a state of uncertainty, with investors uncertain about whether bullish predictions will stand in 2025.
Analysts’ predictions: A bearish trend looms
Fears of a bearish crypto market phase have been on the rise across the community. Some analysts are predicting that the correction could deepen in the coming months. Michael Pizzino, an Australian crypto analyst, highlighted a potential bearish signal forming in major cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL, suggesting a possibility of a longer downturn than many had anticipated moving into 2025.
“We now have the potential for a macro double top which is a very bearish signal. Now, it’s early days…[but] we shouldn’t ignore the same signal popped up in Bitcoin away from that March top and it did lead to a very lengthy and severe draw down in the market,” he said.
However, Pizzino also emphasizes that broader macroeconomic trends for Bitcoin remain positive. While short-term market movements can be volatile and unpredictable, long-term trends for Bitcoin are still largely bullish, with key support levels intact.
He cautions against relying too heavily on short-term analysis and suggests that investors remain adaptable, especially in times of market uncertainty.
David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, highlighted the potential for increased volatility as the year draws to a close, citing a “low-liquidity environment.” Lawant also pointed out that December 27 is set to witness the largest crypto options expiry event in history, with nearly $18 billion in BTC and ETH contracts set to expire.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs also experienced bearish signals, with a significant outflow that saw the market shed nearly $950 million on Thursday and Friday as market participants reacted to the ongoing downturn.
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