通过借贷协议的链上杠杆率回到 2021 年峰值水平
链上活跃贷款已恢复至 2021 年高峰期以来的最高水平。 DeFi活动的代理指标显示，借款人到目前为止对牛市充满信心，通过基于抵押的贷款寻求收益。
DeFi借贷已成为 2024 年的领先应用之一。虽然DeFi整体锁定价值仍低于 2021 年，但链上借贷与上一轮牛市周期一样活跃。
链上杠杆指标揭示了一个更加成熟的市场，领先的协议已经扩展到多个链。此外，目前的链上杠杆率仅名义上与 2021 年相似。
该指标是在Bitcoin（BTC）正处于十字路口时达到的，这再次引发了对其周期峰值的质疑。 2021 年，贷款高峰与价格上涨同时发生，但最终蔓延到了多个协议。从那时起，考虑到抵押品的价值， DeFi贷款的增长变得更加保守。
此外，一些协议改用国库券作为抵押品，消除了与加密货币价格相关的一层风险。
更大的稳定币池促进了贷款
作为加密货币市场可用货币供应量的百分比，该周期仍使用较小比例的可用稳定币。这引发了对更广泛贷款的预期，这反过来又可能促进 DEX 掉期和其他活动。
随着稳定币供应量的增加，在市场下跌的情况下， DeFi贷款也限制了其蔓延。
杠杆率正在建立，但作为货币供应量的百分比， #DeFi活跃贷款仅突破了上个周期达到水平的 50%。 pic.twitter.com/2kysPxjyQg
—杰米·库茨 (Jamie Coutts) CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) 2024 年 12 月 17 日
During the 2024 cycle, DeFi and centralized trading have exposure to nearly 200B in various stablecoins. The DeFi space also has new algorithmic or asset-backed coins and tokens that can create niche sources of liquidity, as in the case of USDe, USDS, the remaining supply of DAI and other minor stablecoins.
On-chain loans have exceeded $22.85B, as lending protocols from 2021 were replaced by new hubs. The market for DeFi lending has recovered from the crash following the Terra (LUNA) unraveling, as well as the subsequent crash of FTX.
On-chain leverage works as far as the underlying collateral is stable and in excess of the loan. The loans are then often used in other DeFi protocols. Loans are usually in the form of stablecoins, which can then be used to purchase assets or to park in high-yield vaults.
Reporting on DeFi lending hinges on the method used to track value. The current level of active loans, as measured by Token Terminal, is lower compared to other leverage metrics.
Based on DeFi Llama data, lending protocols lock in more than $50B in value, the highest level since before the crash of LUNA and UST.
Aave leads the lending movement
While other protocols grew with some level of caution, Aave (AAVE) was the leading app in terms of active loans and value locked.
Aave was available during bear market years, building up its infrastructure and user base. The lending protocol is now growing aggressively, offering its lending pool model to other DeFi hubs.
The value in Aave is now above $22B, including the reported loans and collaterals. The project also issues its own stablecoin, GHO, although the growth is limited and relatively conservative.
Aave still relies mostly on WETH and WBTC, while also including smaller tokens in its lending vaults. Even other lending protocols have moved their activity to Aave, in a bid to consolidate liquidity and offer users a simpler approach.
The native AAVE token recently failed its climb to $400, instead sinking to $343.61. AAVE observers expect it to rise to four-digit valuations as it is seen as being early in the lending cycle.
Recently, AAVE also got a boost from whale buying. On-chain lending is sometimes rolled back into DeFi tokens, as in the case of a recently reported whale activity. The whale took GHO as an on-chain loan and used the proceeds to buy more AAVE. Those practices can boost a token’s price. However, that can also expose the loans to liquidation.
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