美联储预计将在今天的 FOMC 会议上降息 25 个基点
新加坡数字资产公司 QCP Group 12 月 18 日发布的最新消息显示，美联储可能会在今年最后一次美联储会议期间宣布降息 25 个基点。此次会议定于12月18日举行，此次降息将是美联储今年发起的第三次降息。
该公司还推测，此次降息可能是美联储一段时间内的最后一次降息。 QCP Group 表示，美联储在声明中将“不置可否”，因为dent总统唐纳德·特朗普就职后没有明确的降息前景。该公司仍预计 2025 年将进行三次降息。
央行将于美国东部时间下午 2:00 发布声明，公布其利率决定和明年的“点阵图”。 《纽约时报》报道称，预期降息后借款利率将最终达到 4.4%。
美联储于 9 月份开始降息，以降低消费者价格并改善就业和劳动力市场。经济保持在目标之上，呈现显着增长。尽管通货膨胀在 11 月份停滞不前，劳动力市场和该国的就业仍保持稳定。
在《纽约时报》最近的一次活动中，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他对美国当前的经济形势和货币政策感到满意。鲍威尔仍然提到，美联储可以“保持一点谨慎”。
11月通胀报告给美联储降息带来不确定性
11 月份通胀再次上升，符合分析师在今年最终报告中对降息前消费者价格上涨的预期。 https://t.co/W8O9pMNzNK pic.twitter.com/YVkC1euxxg
—福布斯 (@Forbes) 2024 年 12 月 11 日
The U.S. National Bureau of Statistics recently released the November inflation report, causing economic uncertainty among analysts. The report indicated that consumer prices spiked 2.7% year-on-year compared to October’s 2.6% rise. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2% from last month’s 3.7%. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) also rose by 0.4% from October.
Some Fed officials mentioned that it was time for the central bank to slow down and find the policy balance. The current sentiment revolved around whether the implementations would tighten policies, leading to an economic slowdown, or ease policies, influencing economic growth.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem suggested earlier this month that the Fed should slow down on rate cuts. Musalem still did not specify when the Fed was supposed to pause. The Fed official also stated that the central bank was nearing its employment and price stability goals.
Richmond’s Fed Reserve president, Tom Barkin, also supported a slower approach to Fed rate cuts. Barkin explained that a ‘slower, more careful path’ would allow the central bank to reach a slightly restrictive policy level that could help it achieve the neutral rate sooner.
QCP Group expects an insignificant effect on the markets
QCP Group speculated that the rumored Fed rate cut might have little to no effects on capital and crypto markets. The firm still explained that investors should watch out for decreasing market liquidity, which could indicate ‘gappy moves’ and incoming large liquidations.
The Singaporean firm further speculated on the BTC price movement after the Fed meeting, saying that the technical outlook was cautious. They suggested that today’s price movement indicated a bearish divergence. The coin has dropped by over 2.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $104,910 at the time of writing.
QCP still warned investors not to short their positions despite any price drop BTC might experience. The firm explained that the long-term outlook for the coin was bullish, especially with the incoming pro-crypto president, Trump.
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