由于贸易战担忧影响经济，中国消费者通胀率仍低于预期
国家统计局报告称，中国11月份消费者通胀增速低于预期，仅比去年同期上涨0.2%。路透社调查的分析师预计 11 月价格将上涨 0.5%，而不是 10 月上涨 0.3%。
中国生产者价格指数连续第26个月下降，11月份降幅为2.5%，低于路透调查中分析师预测的2.8%。出厂价格降幅也较去年同期有所收窄。排除波动较大的燃料和食品价格后，11 月份核心通胀率从 10 月份的 0.2% 上升 0.3%。
猪肉和鲜菜价格同比分别上涨13.7%和10%。黑色金属材料价格下降7.1%，工业生产者购进价格指数下降。化学原材料下跌5%，燃料电力下跌6.5%。
专家认为贸易战中中国通货紧缩将持续
由于贸易战担忧导致经济放缓，中国消费者价格涨幅低于预期https://t.co/rC1SLLfQVd
— CNBC (@CNBC) 2024 年 12 月 9 日
Erica Tay, the director of macro research at Maybank, said that China’s PPI deflation still seemed ‘quite entrenched’ although it had narrowed slightly. She told CNBC that accumulated producer inputs and finished goods inventories were sizable and grew from month to month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, persistent near-zero retail inflation showed that China’s economy struggled with low domestic demand as wholesale prices remained deflationary. Domestic demand remained sluggish despite Beijing’s series of stimulus efforts since September, which included interest rate cuts, support for stock and property markets, and efforts to incentivize bank lending.
“We believe deflation will continue in China, especially based on the previous experience during trade wars.”
~ Becky Liu, Head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank
Liu said that PPI inflation typically fell to negative territory during trade wars, referencing the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. She pointed out that the situation was no different, adding that China’s producer price index inflation was likely to remain negative the following year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s near-zero CPI figures will continue into 2025
The investment bank’s analysts similarly projected that China’s near-zero consumer price index figures would persist next year. The analysts, however, noted that some parts of the economy showed signs of recovery. China reported strong retail sales growth in October, beating expectations from Reuters analysts. In November, the second-largest economy in the world also showed expansion in manufacturing activities for two months in a row, according to Goldman Sachs.
According to CNBC, top Chinese leaders are expected to meet at the Central Economic Work Conference starting December 11th to discuss 2025’s stimulus measures and economic goals.
On December 9th, Fitch Ratings reduced their forecast of China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.3%. The credit rating agency adjusted its September projections for 2026 growth downwards from 4.3% to 4%. Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings Chief Economist, assumed that the U.S. trade policies towards China would take a sharp ‘projectionist turn’ for 2025 and 2026. He noted that an extended decline in the property market posed a critical risk to the agency’s forecast, although there were ‘tentative signs of stabilization’.
Notably, China will report its November trade data and retail sales on December 10th and December 16th, respectively.
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