金融市场对英国央行遏制通胀的能力缺乏信心
据《金融时报》报道，英国央行 (BoE) 面临金融市场对其实现 2% 通胀目标能力的质疑。报告显示，尽管英国央行的实际数据显示在抑制通胀方面取得了积极进展，但金融市场仍对英国央行的官方预测持怀疑态度。
去年，英国央行预测通胀率为 3%，因为到 2024 年底，利率和失业率均保持在 5% 以上。然而，报告显示通胀回落，接近 2% 的目标，情况变得更加积极。利率降至 4.75%，失业率低至 4.3%。
英国央行在持续通胀压力下应对市场疑虑
英国金融市场预计英国央行不会达到 2% 的通胀目标。
这在国际上是不寻常的
他们预计未来 50 年左右的通货膨胀率平均为 3%……。
…到底是怎么回事？
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—克里斯·贾尔斯 (@ChrisGiles_) 2024 年 11 月 26 日
Clare Lombardelli, the BoE’s deputy governor for monetary policy, gave a speech yesterday at the annual BoE watchers’ conference seeking to address issues about the central bank’s credibility, policy, and forecasting. However, her speech gave several explanations for the market’s persistent belief in higher UK inflation, including doubt about RPI change.
Despite the seemingly good inflationary outcome, Lombardelli declared it was too early to declare victory on inflation. She noted that the outlook on salaries and services inflation was ‘unclear from here’ because the pace of wage growth was not slowing as much as expected.
Lombardelli warned the conference that a scenario in which companies and workers get used to wage rises of 3.5% to 4% and price inflation of 3% would be more costly to change if it becomes entrenched. However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank predicted that inflation in the UK could rise to 3% in 2025.
“But at this point, I am more worried about the possible consequences if the upside materialised, as this could require a more costly monetary policy response.”
– Clare Lombardelli
Lombardelli said that she supported the gradual removal of monetary policy restrictions and would be monitoring the flow of data over the coming months so that the BoE could calibrate its policy path as needed.
Lombardelli addresses market doubts as other experts weigh in on the UK’s economic outlook
Lombardelli acknowledged the financial markets’ concerns and said the BoE was working to improve its forecasting models. While she admitted that the BoE’s efforts to improve its models were ongoing, Lombardelli confirmed that the changes in how the UK’s central bank predicted the future would be huge.
She expressed a ‘hawkish’ view on inflation, suggesting that the risks of inflation lasting for too long outweighed the risks of lower inflation. Her colleague on the monetary policy committee, Swati Dhingra, shared most of her sentiments but viewed the risks differently.
Overall, Lombardelli disclosed that the BoE was planning to gradually reduce its monetary policy until it had more information about inflation’s behavior. She also outlined the central bank’s plan to implement reforms suggested by Ben Bernanke, a former U.S. Fed chair and Nobel Prize winner.
Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, argued that central banks should aim to bring inflation down after periods of high inflation. DeAnne Julius, former UK monetary policy committee member, emphasized that the UK could face stagflation since the general economic outlook was more pessimistic.
Martin Sandbu argued that Europe needed to save less and suggested different policy changes to achieve this. He pointed out that many of the suggested policy changes were unpopular with the BoE.
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