投资者警告tron美元将冲击新兴市场债券
英国《金融时报》的一份报告显示，投资者对即将dent内美元的tron感到担忧。该报告强调，投资者预计美元tron将扰乱新兴市场债券的回报。
报告显示，投资者还担心强势tron可能引发资金外流。报告指出，发达国家已经长期处于高利率状态。摩根大通的一份报告指出，trac的资金利率较高，而这些资金原本会流入新兴市场。
摩根大通还公布了过去几年新兴市场资金净流出的数据。 11月8日，新兴市场债券录得32亿美元净流出，创约两年来最大流出量。摩根大通报告提到，投资者预计新兴市场资产将面临特朗普政策的压力。今年，新兴市场债券的总流出额达到200亿美元，低于2023年的310亿美元和2022年的900亿美元。
全球市场一直在处理特朗普的交易，这对股票、加密货币和股票市场的投资者来说是一种欣喜若狂的状态。路透社的一篇文章透露，减税和宽松的监管加剧了这种兴奋。然而，特朗普政策带来的通胀预期可能会推动美元走强和美国国债收益率飙升。
多种货币兑美元走弱
美元 WREC KIN球
美元伤害了新兴市场——墨西哥、巴西、中国，甚至欧洲
将他们的股票市场与美国进行比较
看看降息预期
他们已经减少了。因此美元可能很快就会见顶$EWZ $EEM $EWW $FXI $SPY … pic.twitter.com/KgUMFAe3gm
— Ram Ahluwalia CFA，Lumida (@ramahluwalia) 2024 年 11 月 22 日
Multiple currencies, including the Euro, the Brazilian Real, and the Japanese Yen, are weakening as the US dollar’s strength increases. The dollar has been crushing other currencies since the Fed began cutting rates aggressively in September. Notably, the Fed also cut rates in November, with economists forecasting more rate cuts until mid-2025.
Local currencies involved in emerging bond markets are feeling most of the pressure. Emerging debt manager Paul McNamara from GAM explained the downward pressure tariffs will exert on emerging market currencies. McNamara insisted on the negative impact the reduced ‘debt investors’ returns in dollar terms,’ which would have on emerging markets.
That said, multiple emerging market currencies are 4% down against the US dollar. The Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso are down by around 2%. On the other hand, the South African Rand is down at least 4% against the dollar.
The Euro also recently hit a two-year low against the dollar amid political tensions in Europe. On November 22, the EUR traded just above $1.03 against the dollar, the lowest since November 2022.
Trump still wants a weaker US dollar
During the last term of Trump’s presidency, the president-elect insisted on the need for a weaker dollar to fuel the country’s business with other countries. In 2019, Trump mentioned that a strong dollar would be great for the U.S.; a very strong dollar would discourage international business with the country.
At the time, Trump had accused China and European countries of devaluing their currencies to compete with the U.S. In his opinion, the incoming president said that the country should match the currency manipulations other countries allegedly engaged in.
“We should MATCH, or continue being the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games – as they have for many years!”
–Donald Trump, U.S. President-elect
During his presidential campaign this year, the president-elect shared his mission of weakening the dollar. However, a Wall Street Journal report outlined that Trump might not be able to achieve a weaker dollar. More importantly, the report discussed how the current trend in U.S. markets might achieve the opposite effect.
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