市场等待本周美联储11月7日利率公布
根据CME GROUP的数据，11月6日至7日举行的下一次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议很有可能建议美联储降息0.25%。政策利率预计将从4.75%下调至4.50%。
经济学家预测，即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议将继续投票支持美联储9月份开始的宽松周期中启动的降息举措。路透社调查的超过90%的经济学家dent，到2024年底，美联储基金利率将降至4.25%-4.50%的区间。近80%的经济学家预计，美联储基金利率将进一步降至4.25%-4.50%的区间。到 2025 年底从 3.0% 升至 3.50%。
加密货币市场观察人士将密切关注美国dent选举
来自伦敦的早上好！这是🇺🇸选举周！
📍 当前赔率显示 DJ 特朗普领先
📍 周二是选举日——预计市场会出现波动，尤其是比特币、石油和美元
📍🇬🇧和🇺🇸预计周四将降息25个基点
📍 主要中型股收益报告… pic.twitter.com/9Cphjcwn5F— Alex Koh 博士 (@alexkoh) 2024 年 11 月 4 日
The pre-election crypto market volatility suggests that the 2024 U.S. presidential elections could be the most crypto-influenced yet. With the crypto community slightly leaning toward Trump, many hope that his victory and pro-crypto stance could solidify the use of U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins in foreign trade.
Crypto investors, including Mark Cuban, also continued to push for replacing U.S. SEC chair Gary Gensler, a stance strongly supported by Trump. A Bernstein September analysis report revealed that a Trump win could catapult Bitcoin price to over $80K. Meanwhile, memecoins such as the Dogecoin mentioned by Elon Musk during a few pro-Trump rallies could also be highly affected by election results.
Bitcoin’s upward movement matched pre-halving momentum as the crypto market reacted to the recent Fed rate cuts.
Dritan Nesho, the CEO of HarrisX, stated that everything, including Trump’s win, was possible in a statistically tied election race. A new national poll conducted by Forbes and HarrisX showed that Kamala Harris had a slight edge over Trump in what could turn out to be the most closely contested elections in the United States history.
“The race is a statistical tie, and it’s going to be a squeaker of an election. Trump has gained in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states.”
–Dritan Nesho
Goldman Sachs predicted approximately six successive 25 bps rate cuts starting in November 2024 through 2025. Economists reported no indications of rate cut interruptions. Radix Financial’s Amy Hubble disclosed that the Fed’s lowered rate would affect markets differently and in ‘different magnitudes.’
Weak jobs report unlikely to affect the Fed’s rate cuts
Fed policymakers claimed there was a strong chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates despite a weak jobs report showing an unemployment rate rise from 3.4% to 4.1% over the past 18 months. Only 12k jobs were added in October, well below the projected 113K jobs.
Nearly all Fed officials making public remarks about the last rate cuts expressed confidence in the unemployment rate at 4.1% and the reducing inflation to almost the desired 2%. According to San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly, there was no information suggesting the Fed wouldn’t continue reducing the interest rate.
Thomas Simons, the senior economist at Jefferies, said the current information did not suggest that the overall economy desperately needed easing, but 25 bps cuts were still expected in the next two FOMC meetings. Job creation and consumer spending looked particularly robust, while price pressures increased slightly since the initial Fed rate cuts in September.
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