Polymarket鲸鱼在向特朗普新赌注注入700万美元后蒙受巨额未实现损失
一位领先的 Polymarket 鲸鱼又向特朗普的“Yes”代币注入了 700 万美元，押注于选举胜利。随着投注不断升温，市场操纵和风险头寸在投注平台上也变得越来越明显。
过去几天，Polymarket 上的鲸鱼活动加速，其中既有真正的信徒，也有疑似市场操纵者。特朗普胜利的最新支持者之一继续用 Kraken 的 703 万美元新存款购买“Yes”代币。新的资金流入增加了鲸鱼为支持特朗普潜在胜利而花费的 7000 万美元。
在特朗普的“是”代币从 0.66 美元跌至 0.61 美元后，鲸鱼估计有 71.4 万美元的未实现损失。
该账户是持有者，但还有其他交易者积极压低特朗普获胜的投注价格。有些账户甚至亏本出售，导致趋势逆转并增加波动性。
想知道为什么卡玛拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 在 Polymarket 上的流行趋势？
现在，一堆未命名的帐户正在产生活动，正在亏本出售！
他们通过多种投注渠道操纵赔率，为特朗普和共和党制造下行压力，以及上行压力…… pic.twitter.com/DVpVyN2QgM
—双层床 (@wrongsns) 2024 年 10 月 31 日
Additional market pressure comes from arbitrage opportunities, with cross-selling possible on different betting markets. Traders recently noticed the Kamala Harris ‘Yes’ tokens were valued higher on PredictIt, leading to further market manipulation. The most recent trades show that Polymarket is not a reliable predictor of the true outcome of the US election.
Polymarket faces multiple betting pressures
Polymarket is still not considered an official prediction, as there are doubts about wash trading. In the past week, one buyer rushed enough orders to put Trump’s odds to 99%, costing around $3M. Currently, price pressures require much higher bids to sway the market.
The profile of traders betting on a Trump victory is different from that of the Kamala Harris side of the bet. Most of the Trump bets are concentrated through whale wallets. Bets on the opposite side are more widely distributed with small-scale buyers.
To further complicate the picture, some of the small-scale users on Polymarket may be airdrop farmers, expecting the platform will consider launching its native token. Up to 44% of Polymarket bets are under $50 and may be considered small-scale betting or outright airdrop mining. But it is the 0.01% of bets above $100K that have the biggest effects on the market and sway the chart the most.
The past month saw no lack of new users of every size, ready to bet on one of the biggest pairs in Polymarket’s history. In October, Polymarket added a total of 300,386 new accounts.
Open interest also went vertical at more than $358B for all markets. Of that open interest, up to 91% went to US election issues as of October 14, contracting slightly in the past two weeks. Despite this, whales with convictions still hold their positions, even with big unrealized gains.
Among the top 10 holders, only three hold unrealized gains, with the rest still waiting out the turbulence. At least four accounts are associated with Fredi9999, one of the top traders on Polymarket, and they reveal a mix of unrealized gains and losses.
Top trader on Polymarket not politically motivated
The identity of Polymarket’s top betting whale on the US elections has been confirmed as a French trader motivated by mathematics and odds more than by politics. The whale, whose biggest account Fredi9999 is at the top of the leaderboards, confirmed his identity for the Wallstreet Journal.
The trader, identified as a French national and going by the name of Theo for the Journal’s piece, said he was not politically motivated. He was also not trying to sway the perception of the elections, but he was confident in beating the odds. The Polymarket whale stated he only used personal funds to make the bets, though with no independent confirmation on the funding source.
The trader’s main intent is just to make money, which at least the lead Fredi9999 account achieved. After favorable buying, the account holds more than $1M in unrealized gains. At the same time, the bets made on a popular vote and electoral college win could erase $30M in positions if the elections go against Theo’s bets. At this point, Fredi9999 and all the related smaller accounts can hardly start unwinding their positions without sparking a market-wide panic and crashing the odds.
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