鲸鱼在 Polymarket 押注特朗普获胜，花费超过 7000 万美元
鲸鱼钱包在 Polymarket 上花费了超过 7000 万美元押注特朗普的选举胜利。 Polymarket 代币的出价源自 10 家主要鲸鱼。
共有 10 个鲸鱼钱包支持特朗普成为美国dent选举的获胜者。在选举日之前的最后阶段，超过 7000 万美元的出价有利于特朗普成为选举获胜者。
鲸鱼们花费了 70.6B 美元在 Polymarket 上购买“yes”代币，将特朗普获胜的几率提高到 66.7%。 Polymarket 的出价再创历史新高。
特朗普对卡马拉·哈里斯的赔率刚刚创下历史新高。
🟥 特朗普 • 66.7% 的机会
📘 哈里斯 • 33.3% 的机会pic.twitter.com/aULiYJlkpC— Polymarket (@Polymarket) 2024 年 10 月 29 日
Out of the 10 known wallets, four are considered to belong to the same person, one of the biggest single players. The top four wallets were linked to the identity of a French national with overwhelming interest in the US election.
Polymarket reaches peak activity
Polymarket is not a poll website, and the bets do not reflect research or statistics on actual election outcomes. However, the Polymarket bets and bids for ‘yes’ or ‘no’ tokens reflect the confidence or risk-taking of individual players.
The volumes on the Trump-Harris betting pair reached $2.7B. Polymarket registered 31K unique active users, remaining the top app on Polygon.
Nothing prevents players from betting on the ‘no’ token for Kamala Harris winning the elections. Overall, holders of the opposite positions are more diverse but have smaller-sized bets. Polymarket also noted one trader bet on the ‘no’ token, but the rapid loss of value led to a deep loss.
There are also other markets where the ratio of Trump to Harris winning is not as dramatic. The popular vote poll sees the ‘yes’ token lead with 58% for Kamala Harris and 42% odds for Trump. The disparity led to speculations that whales were deliberately swaying the market.
At one point, bids on the token accelerated until they pushed the Trump odds above 97%. Such a bet would have little meaning and even smaller earnings for the whale. After that, big-position buyers were more careful, expanding the odds at a slower pace.
Buying accelerates for Trump bets
The behavior of whales is not based on simple bets. The participants on the most active Polygon market are also choosing different activity levels, depending on the time period. Most of the recent whales became active at the end of September.
In the final week before the elections, large-scale buying for ‘yes’ tokens dominates the market. In the past day, high-volume buying accelerated, with nearly $1M in orders made by a single buyer within hours. As expectations for a Trump victory increased, some of the previous buyers also liquidated their positions, locking in the latest gains.
Not all traders are making gains, despite the clear odds. One Trump buyer is currently at a loss of $12K after starting a buying spree at $0.67 for ‘yes’ tokens. One of the most active whales in the past day, with serial transactions above $100K, is GCotrell93. The buyer holds a total position valued at $5.6M, with net gains of $22K.
The biggest position remains that of Fredi9999, with more than $19.7M locked in betting positions and a $3.44M gain. The large-scale buyer is also known to be a French national, making it less probable that the main goal is the manipulation of public opinion.
The price may continue to fluctuate in the coming days, creating a lively market. The presence of speculative bets shows not all buying on Polymarket aims at distorting the election odds deliberately. The presence of more whales with unconnected wallets suggests the bets may not be deliberate manipulation, but an honest expectation of winning.
Bets of $10,000 and above are more diverse, with more buying of Kamala Harris ‘yes’ tokens. Those are still considered whale positions, but they are more random, unlike the top 10 whales that deliberately built up their holdings.
Polymarket keeps denying deliberate manipulation, as betting markets are designed to self-balance, especially if buyers are defending a non-viable position. Additionally, Polymarket’s most active bet has grown too big to manipulate deliberately.
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