美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天将发表讲话,预计将讨论央行降息0.50%后的政策前景。鲍威尔的言论将成为焦点,因为经济学家认为美联储的错误可能会给经济带来损失。 路透社援引的一项新调查显示,39%的经济学家表示,错误地运用利率工具对抗通胀是最大的经济风险。
在标准普尔全球美国制造业 PMI 和 9 月份 ISM 制造业报告即将发布之前,加密货币市场也陷入平静。前者是基于月度调查的指数,作为制造业的绩效衡量标准。后者由供应管理协会 (ISM) 制作,还解释了制造业的任何trac或扩张。就业数据是本周值得关注的另一个重要经济指标,因为它主要影响美联储 11 月做出的下一个货币政策决定。
本周主要事件:
1. 美联储主席鲍威尔讲话——周一
2. 9 月 ISM 制造业数据 – 周二
3. JOLTs 就业数据——周二
4. ADP 非农就业数据——周三
5. 10 月 OPEC 会议 – 周三
6. 首次申请失业救济人数——周四
7. 九月就业报告……
—科比西信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2024 年 9 月 29 日
Data on US spending also explained the overall health of the economy. For August, consumer spending rose moderately but analysts see more potential rate cuts in Q4. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings predicts that the real GDP growth for the US is at 2.7% in 2024. The forecast is lower at 1.8% for 2025. The company continues to see a 25% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months.
Despite the economic woes and the crypto market’s muted performance on Monday, the year might end on a bull note for Bitcoin. The crypto is closing in September with monthly gains of around 8%. According to an analysis by Ali Martinez, only 4 September months since 2013 ended with gains. Historically, it also signified a positive Q4 on the calendar, with increasing monthly returns.
This means, despite the uncertainty due to economic and election results, a bullish close to 2024 doesn’t seem unlikely.