印度上季度經濟增長5.4%未達預期
印度經濟在截至 9 月的第二財季僅增長 5.4%。緩慢的增長速度比路透調查中經濟學家的預期低1.1%，比央行的預測低1.4%，接近兩年來的低點。
該國統計機構記錄採礦業（-0.1%）和製造業（2.2%）增長緩慢。該機構還指出，2024-25 財年第二季度名義 GVA 增長 8.1%，實際 GVA 增長 5.6%。據 CNBC 報道，GDP 擴張疲軟可能對該國的利率軌跡產生負面影響。印度儲備銀行貨幣政策委員會定於下個月舉行會議。
經濟學家預測印度經濟2025年將放緩
印度經濟在截至 9 月的第二財季增長了 5.4%，遠低於經濟學家的預期。 https://t.co/QrxylCULx4 pic.twitter.com/3yf4sP8qf0
— CNBC 國際 (@CNBCi) 2024 年 11 月 29 日
Alicia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, predicted that India’s economy would slow in 2025 but not collapse. She added that Natixis had a growth projection of at least 6.4% for India in 2025. Herrero, however, did not clarify whether the forecast referred to fiscal or calendar year but pointed out that the print could also come in as low as 6%. She qualified it as ‘not a bit of a problem, but not welcome.’
Herrero also claimed that India was not really at the center of China’s reshuffling of the value chain when asked how she thought the country’s economy would fare under Trump’s incoming government.
“If I were the Trump administration, I would start [looking at tariffs for] Vietnam. That’s a much more obvious case.”
–Alicia Herrero
Herrero pointed out that China could make products in India for Indian consumption instead of exporting them. She added that this could help New Delhi avoid being hit by tariffs.
Reserve Bank of India worries about more than just food inflation
According to the Economic Times, food inflation remained a persistent problem for the Reserve Bank of India. Governor Shaktikanta Das and his colleagues at the Monetary Policy Committee often viewed it as a critical factor in their rate-cutting decisions. The latest RBI bulletin, however, highlighted the gradual rise in core inflation as a new concern. The central bank pointed out troubling signs in India’s October CPI inflation in its ‘State of the Economy’ report. It noted that the increase in core inflation had raised its cautionary stance.
Staples and essential products largely defied the slowdown in consumption. They showed double-digit growth in volume sales. Industry executives reportedly implied that this was an indication of consumers maintaining their spending on daily household essentials. Notably, unlike in previous downturns, it offered hope for a recovery in demand.
According to market researchers NielsenIQ and Kantar, volume sales of packaged goods like spices, pulses, edible oils, toothpaste, atta, and rice grew in the second quarter. Most companies, such as Adani Wilmar, Colgate, and Tata Consumer Products, expected this trend to continue into the October – December quarter.
A Systematix Institutional Equities report noted that the recovery in consumer demand that started back last month is still fueling optimism for a strong second half of FY25.
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