Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Market uncertainty lingers, Trump’s 90-day tariff pause sparks modest recovery

• Bitcoin price recovers above $82,000 on Friday after dumping to a low of $74,508 to start the week.
• Market uncertainty remains high, leading to a massive shakeout with total liquidations hitting $2.18 billion across crypto markets.
• Institutional demand continues to weaken as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $712.27 million until Thursday.

Bitcoin (BTC) price extends recovery to around $82,500 on Friday after dumping to a new year-to-date low of $74,508 to start the week. Market uncertainty remains high, leading to a massive shakeout, with total liquidations hitting $2.18 billion across crypto markets. Moreover, institutional demand continues to weaken, as Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a total net outflow of $712.27 million until Thursday.

Trump’s tariff dumps while 90-day pause sparks modest recovery

Bitcoin's price continued its correction at the start of the week and reached a new year-to-date low of $74,508 on Monday after falling nearly 5% the previous week following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. However, BTC closed in positive territory that day as an immediate reaction to some fake news regarding a likely 90-day pause in the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs. Still, BTC continued its decline by 3.59% on Tuesday. 

On Wednesday, President Trump confirmed that the US would pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Overall, global markets reacted positively to this news, and Bitcoin recovered more than 8%, reaching a high of $83,588 and closing above $82,600. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC hovers around $82,500. 

The price dump related to Trump’s tariff uncertainty occurred earlier in the week, while BTC saw a slight recovery in the second half. This price volatility triggered a wave of liquidations in the crypto market, with total liquidations hitting $2.18 billion across crypto markets, according to Coinglass data.

Total Liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

In an exclusive interview, Marcin Kazmierczak, Co-founder & COO of RedStone, shared his insights regarding Trump’s tariffs pause with FXStreet.

Q: How do you see Trump’s 90-day tariff pause impacting investor sentiment toward risk assets like Bitcoin in the short term, especially amid global economic uncertainty?

Trump's 90-day tariff pause likely provides temporary relief for risk assets like Bitcoin by reducing immediate economic tensions and uncertainty in global markets. This brief respite might boost short-term investor confidence in crypto asset class as traders interpret the pause as a potential de-escalation of trade conflicts that have recently heightened market volatility.

US Bitcoin Spot ETF demand continues to fall

Looking at institutional flows, it continued to weaken this week. According to the SoSoValue data, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow totaling $712.27 million until Thursday after a $172.69 million outflow last week. If the net outflow continues and intensifies, Bitcoin’s price could see further correction ahead.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow daily chart. Source: SoSoValue

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Kazmierczak further shared his insights regarding ETFs and institutional demand.

Q: Despite the tariff pause potentially easing macroeconomic pressure, Bitcoin ETFs continue to underperform—what does this suggest about institutional confidence in BTC right now?

Bitcoin ETFs' continued underperformance despite the tariff pause reflects their nature as long-term investment vehicles that don't typically respond to short-term market developments. Institutional investors utilizing ETFs generally maintain strategic positions based on extended time horizons, making them less reactive to temporary policy shifts like the tariff pause compared to direct market participants.

Q: Could the temporary relief from tariffs spark renewed capital flow into crypto markets, or will broader regulatory and ETF struggles continue to weigh down Bitcoin’s momentum?

While the tariff pause might temporarily improve market sentiment, substantial capital flows into crypto markets will likely remain constrained by ongoing regulatory uncertainties and ETF performance issues. Bitcoin's momentum will probably continue facing headwinds from these structural challenges, with the tariff pause representing a modest positive influence rather than a catalyst for sustained market recovery.

Additionally, Lookonchain data also shows that a whale just deposited 1,500 BTC worth $120.29 million to Binance on Friday, indicating a rise in selling pressure. The whale still holds 1,486 BTC worth $120 million, with a total profit of $31.24 million.

MicroStrategy could fuel BTC crash

Michael Salyor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) filed a Form 8-K with the SEC on Monday. This filing details significant financial updates for the first quarter of 2025.

According to the filing, MSTR reported an unrealized loss of approximately $5.91 billion on its Bitcoin holdings for Q1. The firm currently holds 528,185 Bitcoins. Moreover, no new Bitcoin or stock acquisitions were reported between March 31 and April 6, suggesting the filing focused on existing assets and their valuation. The filing reportedly highlighted a total debt of $8.22 billion. 

“As Bitcoin constitutes the vast bulk of assets on our balance sheet, if we are unable to secure equity or debt financing in a timely manner, on favorable terms, or at all, we may be required to sell bitcoin to satisfy our financial obligations, and we may be required to make such sales at prices below our cost basis or that are otherwise unfavorable,” says MSTR on the filing.

If MSTR sells some of its Bitcoin holdings to cover its financial obligation, the effect hinges on execution and context. A small, planned OTC sale might barely ripple the market, while a large, rapid exchange sale during a downturn could slash prices and shake confidence, leading to a sharp fall in Bitcoin’s price. 

This sell-off might encourage other corporate holders (Marathon Digital with 46,376 BTC, Metaplanet with 4,206 BTC) to follow, compounding supply pressure. Conversely, it could cool the trend of corporate Bitcoin adoption.

Some signs of optimism

Despite rising tariff uncertainty, global trade war tension, and falling institutional-level demand, some signs of optimism exist. On Monday, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released guidance for licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs) and crypto ETFs to offer staking services, aiming to bolster the region’s crypto hub ambitions amid global competition.

This decision to allow staking for licensed platforms and ETFs is generally a positive sign for Bitcoin. It indicates a maturing crypto ecosystem that indirectly benefits Bitcoin by fostering institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and global competition. As Bitcoin doesn’t directly benefit from staking, the broader infrastructure growth in Hong Kong could drive demand for Bitcoin through ETFs and institutional investment.

Moreover, the Glassnode weekly report highlights some positive signs. The report evaluates the 6-hour rolling window for realized losses to better understand market participants' behavior and disposition in the current downturn. Investor capitulation events for Bitcoin have been sizeable, with a peak of $240 million in losses locked in across the 6-hour window. This is similar to some of the largest loss events of the cycle. However, the magnitude of losses realized during this drawdown has decreased with each successive price leg lower. This suggests a form of near-term seller-exhaustion may be starting to develop within this price range.

BTC: 6-hour rolling losses chart. Source: Glassnode

Moreover, as explained in the previous report, China's weakening Yuan could lead to increased money printing, which historically boosts Bitcoin's value as a hedge against currency devaluation.

Bitcoin's technical outlook remains indecisive: Dead cat bounce or trendline breakout?

Bitcoin price was rejected from its daily resistance of $85,000 on April 2 and declined 10.55% until Tuesday. It also reached a new year-to-date low of $74,508 on Monday. However, BTC recovered 8% and closed above $82,600 on Wednesday. The next day, BTC declined 3.64% after facing rejection from its descending trendline (drawn by connecting multiple highs since mid-January). At the time of writing on Friday, it hovers at around $82,500.

Bitcoin’s current price action looks indecisive, and two possibilities can be played out.

In a ‘dead cat bounce’ scenario, the market could experience a temporary, short-lived recovery towards the $85,000 resistance level before continuing its downward trend. 

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator supports a ‘dead cat’ situation after a sharp recovery on Wednesday. Currently, the RSI reads 45, pointing downward after being rejected from its neutral level of 50, indicating a rise in bearish momentum. If the RSI falls sharply, BTC could see a correction ahead.

If BTC continues its downward trend, it could extend the decline to retest its next daily support level at $73,072.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, another possibility is that BTC continues its recovery following Wednesday’s sharp positive move and breaks and closes above the descending trendline, which coincides with the daily resistance level and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,000. 

In this case, BTC could extend the recovery to retest the key psychological level of $90,000 and the March 2 high of $95,000.