Deutsche Bank cuts Tesla price target amid weak Q1 deliveries

Deutsche Bank has lowered its Tesla price target from $420 to $345, as new estimates show the company’s first-quarter delivery numbers are falling behind.

The revision was issued by Edison Yu, who still maintains a buy rating on the stock despite the downgrade. Yu said the new target is 26% higher than Tesla’s Thursday closing price, but the forecast reflects a sharp decline in performance.

Yu now expects Tesla to deliver between 340,000 and 350,000 vehicles in the first quarter. That’s well below the sell-side consensus of 378,000, and would be an 11% drop from the same time last year.

Compared to the previous quarter, the decline hits 30%, making this the lowest delivery count since Q3 of 2022. Yu added that this drop “likely means auto margin will also be under greater pressure.”

Analysts flag delivery declines, brand issues, and political exposure

Yu said Tesla’s stock has taken a hit from weak delivery volumes, a wider sell-off in growth stocks like the Mag 7, and policy uncertainty tied to politics. He wrote:

“Our view is that Tesla’s stock has been under pressure recently driven by much weaker auto volumes, broader de-rating in growth assets (e.g., Mag 7), and to some extent, political/policy uncertainty.”

He warned that things at Tesla rarely follow a predictable path and noted that neither the company’s robotaxi program nor its humanoid project should be expected to scale in a straight line.

Yu also pointed to ongoing “brand damage” tied to Elon Musk’s political activity, saying it could lower demand. He said he plans to monitor that trend closely. While the U.S. presidential shift back to Donald Trump adds more risk, Tesla may be better prepared than others if Trump moves forward with his plan to apply a 25% tariff on all foreign-made vehicles.

Yu said that Tesla could still take a hit from the tariff, especially because 20–25% of some models rely on parts made in Mexico. But he added that the impact should be small under the current trade guidelines.

“While the new 25% tariffs can hurt Tesla, mainly on the Mexico content (20-25% depending on the model), we estimate very minimal impact under the current guidelines (powertrain, electronic components) given Tesla likely sources mostly low value-add items from there,” he wrote.

HSBC slashes target and questions Tesla’s product strength

At HSBC, analyst Michael Tyndall dropped his price target by $35, bringing it down to $130. That suggests a 52.2% fall from Wednesday’s closing price. Tyndall said there are “no quick fixes” to Tesla’s current issues. In a Thursday note to clients, he wrote, “The seeds for the current sales weakness pre-date the recent brand issues.”

Tyndall pointed to trouble in China, where he said Tesla’s older product lineup and limited driver-assist tech are hurting sales. He also said Tesla is losing out in Europe, where fleet buyers make up 60% of new car sales. He explained that the company has ignored some key industry practices like regular model updates and price changes, which could now be costing them.

“Tesla eschews many of the industry norms (holding list prices firm, making regular facelifts and model renewals) and has to date seen only minimal impact, but tougher competition and brand erosion is likely to see the impact of its strategy hurt more,” Tyndall wrote.

Tyndall also pushed back on the timeline for Tesla’s robotaxi plans, saying the future opportunity is too far off. He cited a report from early March that used crowdsourced data to show progress in Tesla’s autonomous driving tech is either “slow or stagnating.” He added, “Delays have been a constant theme at Tesla, whereas the competitive threats continue to grow. We see a longer and less certain timeline than the current valuation reflects.”

Despite the recent 9.3% gain in Tesla stock this week, shares are still down over 32% in 2025. The recent bump hasn’t fixed the long-term drop, and investor confidence remains mixed.

Out of the 54 analysts currently tracking the stock, 26 rate it as a buy or strong buy, 16 have it listed as a hold, and 12 are advising underperform or sell, based on coverage numbers shared by LSEG.

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